Tire market is not optimistic about next year

Tire market is not optimistic about next year
Written by HMH | December 30, 2011 | 0 |





Strength of domestic demand to promote the export market is limited bewildering

Talking about the situation in the tire industry in 2011, CEOs of companies with the largest word is “entangled”, if coupled with a word, it is “disturbed”, the price of natural rubber and tire up off the fluctuations, so that many When people lament the end of the year “finally get through to the.” How will the market next year? Reporters operate tire industry in the country during the working meeting interview, we hear more of in next year’s industry concerns about the situation.

“Next year may be more difficult than this year, the situation is more complex, companies either to reduce the operating rate, or pressure stocks. Turned out to be pain, pain now may be a long, 2 to 3 years may have more difficult.” Double Coin Holdings Limited, Vice General Manager Zhang Wanyou think so.

“2011 is a very tangled one year, 2012 will be a very challenging year for the growth rate of domestic car production and sales are dropping, little growth in tire demand, but production has increased dramatically, because by the 4 trillion million investment boost, tire industry in 2009 earned a lot of money to stimulate the investment enthusiasm, many projects were launched in 2012. Now that we have felt the pressure of excess steel tire, and did not let the industry cut production The overall inventory down. semi-steel tire, the Dawangzhuang new items on the side, an annual output of 5 million are considered small and large known to reach 20 million annual production capacity of these projects if the total production, the whole world to excess. “Hangzhou Zhongce Rubber Co., Ni Jie, general manager of tire sales company said.

Guangzhou South China Rubber Tire Co., Ltd. Fu Xiangdong deputy general manager told reporters that came into effect in November next year although the EU labeling law does not specify what level are not allowed to enter, but the EU has been more rational consumers, labeling consumer market after the implementation of its How things have changed, focusing on consumption patterns will not change, should be given attention. Moreover, in 2011 no bad weather in Europe can be the European distributor in the second and third quarters of hoarding a lot of winter tires, taking up much money, how much of the impact of future sales, it also remains unclear. Coupled with growth in emerging economies slowing, Brazil, South Africa, currency devaluation, export market is not optimistic is an indisputable fact.

“Natural rubber prices are not very optimistic.” Aeolus Tyre Co., Ltd. Deputy General Manager of Pingyao Ling said. He was found to Thailand in October, before the processing base of natural rubber in Thailand, mainly in southern, northern Thailand, there are now several large-scale plant under construction, these plants processing technology is good, large-scale, on the future price of natural rubber will be generated impact. Jiaojia fluctuations, unstable economic performance of enterprises.

Fan Rende, president of China Rubber Industry Association, said the international situation in 2012 is more severe than in 2011, export barriers may be more. European debt crisis intensified, the EU economic downturn can solve the problem overnight, the United States and the extent of Japan’s economic recovery than expected, will affect China’s tire exports. Domestic demand and stimulate the domestic economy, the “troika” is unlikely to be a big highlight. 4 trillion yuan investment finishing work on the tire market and emerging industries will be driven more limited. Automotive industry in 2011 only about 3% growth rate, growth is expected in 2012, 6% to 8%, driven relatively weak. On the whole, the prospects for next year’s tire sales more difficult than this year. However, growth slowed, but also brings to the enterprise structural adjustment, to the way a good time, standardize processes, increase the means of information, explore the modern marketing network model, companies will likely gain more.

Some people say that the tire industry is starting earlier than the chicken to sleep later than donkeys, profit more than paper thin. “The homogenization of the era, leading technology and provide value for money of services, or to windfall profits. And the basis of information who pockets the first drum.” Lifa Rong, vice president of Triangle Tyre Co., said the wave of global environmental protection , the initiative has become an inevitable trend, advance research and innovation can not be eliminated.Different markets, different models of the requirements are different, the product of precise positioning, the product can be more competitive.






Increase in automobile inventories increased pressure on the rubber market
Written by HMH | December 29, 2011 | 0 |





Shanghai rubber futures contract on May 29 fell 1.92% in early trading.Italian market for long-term Treasury bonds auction was pessimistic, auto stocks rise and sell stocks, Qingdao Free Trade Zone, the message will be increased pressure on the rubber market. However, China may adjust the reserve in the New Year period, limiting declines.

28, the New York Mercantile Exchange, February crude contract fell $ 1.98 to $ 99.36, down 2%. Italian Treasury auction results showed that the country on the 28th were successful auction of € 9 billion and € 1.733 billion six-month and 2-year bonds, but the good does not provide much support, 10-year bond yields back to 7% of the bit above the critical level.Italy will auction three years and 10 years bonds, investors worried that the auction may have worse performance, resulting in the euro area credit crunch may be. However, the tension in the Middle East situation continues to constitute a support for oil prices. Crude oil fell, to cut the cost of synthetic rubber, natural rubber market on the negative.

Weather conditions, natural rubber producing areas of Thailand, north-central Thailand, sunny cloudy, cloudy south; areas of Malaysia, the Malay Peninsula, southern cloudy, with rain in northern Kalimantan; areas of Indonesia, Sumatra, north of the equator cloudy equatorial Sumatra south of the rain, rain in southern Kalimantan; producing areas of China, Hainan, cloudy, cloudy, Yunnan. Recent weather on tapping little effect on production and transportation.

Asian spot market, the first trading day, prices fell. Market participants to bid carefully. Traders said low bids, despite the world’s largest rubber importer and consumer countries – China market purchases. A trader in Singapore said China bids lower than USD 3,300 per tonne, closing difficult. January 3, Yan Pianjiao shipment Thai RSS3 336-338 cents per kg.29, the Malaysian standard rubber SMR20 1 月 official quoted FOB morning remained stable.

Other aspects, the current inventory has exceeded two million domestic passenger cars, equivalent to 11 per month before the 1 / 6. The Automobile Association predicts auto market growth in 2011, about 2%. The growth of the domestic auto market has significantly slowed down, the situation is even more optimistic about next year. As the stock high, the recent decline in vehicle production is likely, rubber demand eased.

Overall, the commodity market is encountering resistance. Italian bond auction largely better than expected, but failed to ease investor anxiety.Investors noted that the 10-year Treasury interest rates are close to dangerous levels of 7%. In addition, the European banking sector loans will be deposited in the European Central Bank European Central Bank, reflecting concerns about the banking sector liquidity and pessimistic economic outlook. The external situation is slightly negative on the rubber market.Data show that China’s stock more than 2 million passenger cars, while sales increased sharply in recent months. 2012 grew by only 2% of the car, then driving the demand for rubber is extremely limited, and recovery in production in Southeast Asia will be more than 5%. Market rumors Qingdao conserved region of the inventory will be thrown to the spot market, short-term pressures will increase.






Traders out of natural rubber will accelerate the pace of integration
Written by HMH | December 29, 2011 | 0 |





Near the end of the year, the industry also moved into year-end inventory. However, a large number of domestic rubber traders, about the past is not a good year in 2011 – now with the natural rubber imports higher level, increasing the pressure on its huge inventory.
“The recent Free Trade Zone within the U.S. rubber prices rebound, can no longer seize the opportunity to see some goods and then, try to reduce these losses.” Qingdao, a trading company official told reporters that Mr. Wu, the company set a number of years, imports of standard plastic have not yet been processed. Since the second half, the bonded rubber stocks remain high, while the shipments were great, so Jiaojia shipments rebound opportunity fleeting, so recently he has been actively associated with the downstream manufacturers to determine the intention of buying and selling. “Although prices of imported low-cost shipping, but shipping now on, otherwise the latter part of inventory and then go up, prices may be lower.” Wu somewhat helpless.
His worries are not redundant. According to the latest Customs statistics show that in November, domestic natural rubber (including adhesive) chain of total imports have increased significantly year on year, monthly imports up to 309,400 tons, a new high for the history of the second month (September this year to 314,200 tons .) And 1-11 months, the domestic total reached 2.6735 million tons of imports, an increase of 3.2%. Among them, the sharp rise in imports marked plastic total imports this year is to promote a major factor. November imports of 186,500 tons domestic standard rubber for high 1-November total imports of 1,441,300 tons, representing an increase of 17.9%.
With the substantial growth in imports, the domestic rubber key distribution center of imports – Qingdao Free Trade Zone inventory continued to run high since the second half. Latest data show that Qingdao Bonded rubber stock has climbed to 18.8 million tons, 30,000 tons adhesive, synthetic rubber, 29,000 tons, a total of 247,000 tons inventory. Than “11″ before 20 million tons of high growth in the current inventory was within the bonded area.
“Inventory is high on the one hand to the inventory of the early progress is slow, the other is domestic traders to Hong Kong due to pre-order one after another.” Treasure Island rubber analyst Zoude Hui told reporters that since 2009, a large number of new rubber traders emerged, due to the lack of these new traders in the industry a large number of pre-judgment order, leading to a sharp decline in Jiaojia this year, the country’s natural rubber imports remains high.
Road through futures analyst Li Hongyang that, under normal circumstances, the downstream tire companies will fill in the annual March 10-11 to prepare inventories of raw materials into production early next year, traders will be stocking earlier in advance. However, the domestic auto market this year, growth is slowing down, the tire business orders decline led to greatly reduced demand for raw materials. Although in October or so, a wave of domestic tire companies centralized purchasing, but does not last long, so the import of natural rubber squeeze serious trade links.
Natural rubber as a communication an important part of the upstream and downstream, in the middle part of the chain traders are more sensitive to changes. But for many new entrants to the traders, the overall market this year, the test environment is more fast and heavy. According to IRSG forecast global rubber consumption this year, an increase of 3.7%, significantly lower than the 5.4% increase in the supply side. From a domestic perspective, enterprises are facing automobile tires cool down this year, double the increase in overseas trade friction test, the overall industry profit margin has shrunk dramatically, to purchase more raw materials are used with the purchase. Meanwhile, many companies began to adjust tire product formulations to enhance the proportion of synthetic rubber, which caused the demand for natural rubber is not a small impact.
　　”The current trade in the middle part of the pressure will increase, especially for some of the smaller traders.” Rubber trade of a domestic enterprise managers Ho said that under the conditions of high stock price of natural rubber a short time is difficult to have large changed. Currently a number of large traders of pressure is not great, but for budding small and medium traders, the situation is very grim. Rubber trade links has emerged out of the integration, will be significantly accelerated the pace of late.






Tight supply seen boosting rubber prices
Written by HMH | December 31, 2011 | 0 |





Continued tight supply coupled with the forthcoming Lunar New Year festival in January is expected to see the Malaysian rubber market opening on a high note come 2012.

Supply of the commodity is expected to slow down even further in the next two months as latex output from Thailand is expected to be considerably reduced as a result of the dry weather there.

“The market is worried about the shortage situation,” said a dealer, adding that the situation would be aggravated with the hoarding of the commodity by traders who kept rubber in warehouses, waiting to capitalise on higher prices.

On a week-to-week basis, the Malaysian Rubber Board’s official physical price for tyre-grade SMR 20 this week fell 30 sen to 1,023.5 sen per kg which was 37.5 per cent lower when compared with a year ago prices.

Latex-in-bulk lost 18.5 sen to 645 sen per kg this week and was 34.58 per cent easier when compared with the same period last year. — Bernama