Tokyo Futures Rebound On Oil, Gold Prices
THURSDAY, APRIL 28, 2011
Key TOCOM rubber futures rebounded after three consecutive days of losses on Thursday (Apr 28) on higher gold and oil prices following signs that the U.S. may continue its easy monetary policy, but investors were cautious of active buying ahead of a long weekend.
FUNDAMENTALS
The key Tokyo Commodity Exchange rubber contract for October delivery was up 1.3 percent, or 4.9 yen, at 383.5 yen per kg as of 0020GMT.
The most active rubber contract on the Shanghai Commodity Exchange for September delivery slid 2.2 percent, or 740 yuan, to close at 32,160 yuan per tonne. Volume stood at 948,158 lots.
U.S. crude futures rose to $113.70 a barrel in early trade on Thursday (Apr 28), to their highest in 2-1/2 years as the dollar remained under pressure after a meeting of the Federal Reserve.
The dollar index fell to a fresh three-year low on Thursday (Apr 28) as Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke did nothing to change the prevailing perception that the U.S. central bank is in no hurry to raise rates.
Gold climbed to a record high of almost $1,530 an ounce on Wednesday (Apr 27) and silver jumped 6 percent.
‘Rubber to turn surplus by 2012’
THURSDAY, APRIL 28, 2011
The new chairman of Rubber Board , Sheela Thomas, has assumed charge at a time when rubber prices are at a historic high. The average domestic price of rubber stood at Rs 190.03 per kg in 2010-11 compared to Rs 114.98 per kg in the previous year. However, availability of rubber in the market has remained quite low throughout the year. Trade and industry bodies have questioned the stock estimates of the Board. Apart from this, production itself has been affected by the shortage of labour and postponement of field operations like replanting of trees. But Sheela Thomas is confident that the problems that the sector is facing can be resolved soon. In an interview to ET's S Sanandakumar , the chairman said that the stress is now on new planting and replanting during the 12th Plan period. Excerpts:
Availability of rubber is the main concern of traders and industries. Some of them have questioned the stock estimates of the Board. What are your views on this issue?
It is true that some stakeholders see availability of rubber as an area of concern. But our statistics show that enough rubber is there in the system. There are some who say that our statistical estimate is wrong. But nobody has come up with any data to prove that. If at all there is a mistake, it can only be with regard to the stock with the growers. The estimate of stocks with other sections is based on the returns they file. Because of these reasons, we have decided to have a relook at the stocks. Suggestions from the stakeholders are welcome. We will be looking at all aspects of the issue including our statistical analysis.
How are replanting and new planting operations progressing?
In the 11th Plan period, we could achieve the target with respect to new planting or new area under rubber plantations. But we could not meet the target for rubber replanting. With prices ruling high, the growers have been postponing the replanting. But in the 12th Plan period, we would give stress to both these operations. New plantations will be developed in non-traditional areas that are suited for rubber. Areas with long dry spell and severe winter are not good for rubber . Karnataka, parts of Andhra Pradesh, Orissa, Goa etc are the regions identified for expanding rubber cultivation.
There is a serious shortage of rubber tappers. How do you address this issue?
Yes, there is a shortage. But the situation is not very serious. We have been offering training to workers from other states. Moreover , tapping should be made remunerative for the workers. Other incentives like pension scheme are being considered for them. Discussions are going on, and we hope some incentives can be worked out.
How do you view the price rise of natural rubber in the international market?
The rubber price rise is on account of the shortage of rubber in the international market . The oil price rise and ecological concerns have imposed certain limits to the growth of synthetic rubber. On the other hand, a real substitute for natural rubber is yet to be developed . So, it appears that the price situation will continue for some time. A surplus situation in rubber is expected only by 2012. But if there is a major fall in prices, the domestic policy with regard to rubber can be reviewed.
(Source: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/opinion/interviews/rubber-to-turn-surplus-by-2012/articleshow/8104676.cms)
(Reuters, April 28, 2011)
Toyo Raises Commercial Tyre Prices in US
THURSDAY, APRIL 28, 2011
A price adjustment taking effect on May 1, 2011 will see the price of all commercial vehicle tyres sold by Toyo Tire U.S.A. Corp. increase by up to 15 per cent, with in-line adjustments occurring.
The manufacturer states this rise reflects the continued escalation in raw material costs. “Due to the steep increase in the costs of raw materials affecting our industry, we must reluctantly raise prices of our product,” said John Hagan, senior director, sales, Toyo Tire U.S.A. “We appreciate the continued support and understanding of our dealers as we remain committed to providing the highest quality products.”
(Tyrepress.com, April 27, 2011)
Honda Outlook Grim, Hyundai To Gain On Japan Quake
THURSDAY, APRIL 28, 2011
Honda Motor and Hyundai Motor will paint vastly different pictures for the year ahead when they report earnings on Thursday (Apr 28) after the March 11 earthquake hammered car production in Japan and helped overseas rivals in the process.
The magnitude-9.0 earthquake and the tsunami it triggered have disrupted the supply of hundreds of components from Japan's northeast region, paralysing car production and reversing what had been shaping up to be a firm recovery from the financial crisis for Japanese automakers.
While the supply bottleneck of certain specialty parts such as microcontroller units made by Renesas Electronics Corp has also hit some automakers outside Japan, most of the pain is being inflicted on domestic brands such as Honda, where output remains at half the level planned before the quake.
Honda and Toyota Motor have forecast a return to normal production by the end of 2011, but said they do not know how quickly volumes will pick up, making it difficult to assess their earnings for the business year that started this month.
Honda may refrain from giving an annual forecast when it reports results at 3 p.m. in Tokyo (0600 GMT). Mitsubishi Motors Corp and Toyota subsidiary Daihatsu Motor gave no guidance on Wednesday (Apr 27).
A survey of 15 analysts forecast Honda's operating profit to sink 37 percent to 394 billion yen ($4.83 billion) in the business year to March 31, 2012, from an estimated 627 billion yen in 2010/11.
For the January-March fourth quarter, operating profit is forecast to rise 7.3 percent to 103.1 billion yen, according to consensus estimates gathered by Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S after the quake.
The slump in auto production accounted for about half the record 15.3 percent fall in Japanese factory output in March, the government said on Thursday (Apr 28).
The earthquake has not only splintered the industry's complex supply chain, but has forced a delay in vehicle launches.
Honda had been scheduled to begin selling a new hybrid station wagon based on the popular Fit subcompact in Japan a week after the quake, while Toyota has also postponed the launch of wagon and minivan versions of the Prius.
But an even bigger worry is what the shortage of Japanese cars and the long wait for consumers would do to their market share in key regions such as the United States and China as some car buyers opt to shop at competing brands, one analyst said.
"Frankly, right now there's no way to know how this will play out in the medium to longer term," said Takaki Nakanishi, an auto analyst at Merrill Lynch Japan Securities.
"While supply is tight through the summer, some sales will shift to other brands such as Hyundai. We'll only start to get a sense of whether this trend is temporary or not towards the end of the year."
FULL SPEED AHEAD FOR HYUNDAI
That is just what analysts are expecting as they project further market share gains for Hyundai and the top South Korean automaker's affiliate, Kia Motors.
The pair, which together rank fifth in the world in car sales, are expected to post double-digit growth in net profits for their January-to-March first quarter, driven by a global market recovery and strong demand for new models.
Hyundai is expected to post first-quarter net income of 1.36 trillion won ($1.3 billion), up 20 percent from a year ago, while Kia's net profit is seen surging 70 percent to a record 676.41 billion won.
The momentum is set to pick up in April-June as they enjoy higher pricing, partly helped by the output cuts in Japan. Hyundai and Kia have been virtually unaffected by the disaster because they use few Japanese components.
"Before the earthquake, concerns lingered about price competition, but we can pretty much rule that out now," said Yoon Pil-joong, an analyst at Samsung Securities.
Hyundai will report first-quarter earnings at 2 p.m. in Seoul (0500 GMT) on Thursday (Apr 28) and Kia announces on Friday (Apr 29).
Hyundai and Kia are targeting combined sales of 6.33 million vehicles this year, which could be on par with Toyota's sales, which analysts forecast at 6.3 million to 7 million.
As of Thursday (Apr 28) morning, Honda's shares were down 7.1 percent from pre-quake levels, compared with a 7.7 percent fall in Tokyo's transport sector subindex. Hyundai's shares have surged 29 percent in the same period, hitting record highs this month.
"Japanese car makers have failed to provide a clear picture of how they are going to get back on their feet," said Park Sang-won, an analyst at Eugene Investment & Securities in Seoul.
"They may lose their leadership in the global auto market to Korean car makers for the longer term."
(Reuters, April 28, 2011)
Tokyo Futures Up On Firm Oil, Capped By Yen, Auto Concerns
WEDNESDAY, APRIL 27, 2011
Key Tokyo rubber futures rose on Wednesday (Apr 27) as oil prices firmed, but the rise was capped by a stronger yen and concerns over weak demand from Japan's auto industry which has been hit by supply chain disruptions after last month's earthquake.
FUNDAMENTALS
The benchmark TOCOM rubber futures for October delivery, rose 5.3 yen or 1.4 percent to 395.2 yen per kg as of 0011 GMT.
On Tuesday, the contract fell nearly 3 percent to as low as 384.3 yen, hurt by concerns about weak demand from the Japanese auto industry and sluggish Shanghai rubber futures.
The most active rubber contract on the Shanghai Commodity Exchange for September delivery fell 370 yuan ($56.680) per tonne to close at 32,900 yuan per tonne on Tuesday (Apr 26). Volume stood at 630,100 lots.
Oil was steady on Wednesday after Brent crude edged up in volatile trading and U.S. crude ended little changed the day before as investors eyed a U.S. Federal Reserve two-day policy meeting for any signal of a change in monetary policy.
The euro scaled fresh 16-month peaks against a broadly weaker greenback early in Asia on Wednesday, while the Swiss franc hit a record high as markets held bearish bets on the U.S. currency ahead of the outcome of the Federal Reserve meeting. The dollar slid to three-week lows around 81.29 yen.
(Reuters, April 27, 2011)
Friday, April 29, 2011
Thursday, April 28, 2011
Spot rubber turns weak on global cues
Spot rubber turns weak on global cues
Kottayam, April 28:
Domestic rubber prices turned weak on Wednesday. On the spot, the market lost ground in tune with declines on the National Multi Commodity Exchange (NMCE). The sentiments were also affected partially by the weakness in international futures. Traders preferred to wait and watch till the prices stabilise after the ongoing corrective phase. Transactions continued to be low indicating short supplies.
Sheet rubber moved down to Rs 237.50 (240) a kg, according to traders. The grade closed at Rs 238.50 (239.50) a kg both at Kottayam and Kochi, according to the Rubber Board.
In futures, the May series weakened to Rs 236.79 (242.68), June to Rs 240.80 (247.04), July to Rs 241.37 (247.98), August to Rs 234.65 (239.55) and September to Rs 230.75 (232.53) a kg for RSS 4 on the NMCE.
RSS 3 (spot) surrendered to Rs 250.95 (254.38) a kg at Bangkok. The May futures declined to ¥430 (Rs 232.42) from ¥435.5 a kg during the day session but then to ¥429.7 (Rs 232.20) in the night session on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange.
Spot rates were (Rs/kg): RSS-4: 237.50 (240); RSS-5: 234 (236); ungraded: 230 (232); ISNR 20: 231.50 (233) and latex 60 per cent: 146 (147).
(This article was published in the Business Line print edition dated April 28, 2011)
Spot rubber rules steady
WEDNESDAY, APRIL 27, 2011 ADMIN
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KOTTAYAM, APRIL 26:
Spot rubber ruled steady on Tuesday. The market seemed to be lacking initiative to set a definitive trend as traders were not interested to expand their commitments. Intermittent summer rain and expectations of an improvement in arrivals seemed to be guiding the sentiments. But it really appeared to be difficult to forecast any immediate change in the fundamental or technical position of the market.
According to traders, sheet rubber continued to remain unchanged at Rs 240 a kg amidst scattered transactions. The grade slipped to Rs 239.50 (240) a kg both at Kottayam and Kochi, according to Rubber Board.
The May series closed at Rs 242.30 (242.74), June at Rs 246.70 (247.67), July at Rs 248 (248.13), August at Rs 239.55 (239.33) and September at Rs 231.55 (230) a kg for RSS 4 on the National Multi Commodity Exchange.
RSS 3 (spot) weakened to Rs 254.38 (258.73) a kg at Bangkok. The May futures for the grade declined to ¥435.8 (Rs 237.31) from ¥442.8 a kg during the day session but then remained inactive in the night session on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange.
Spot rates were (Rs/kg): RSS-4: 240 (240); RSS-5: 236 (236); ungraded: 222 (222); ISNR 20: 233 (233) and latex 60 per cent: 147 (147)/
Kottayam, April 28:
Domestic rubber prices turned weak on Wednesday. On the spot, the market lost ground in tune with declines on the National Multi Commodity Exchange (NMCE). The sentiments were also affected partially by the weakness in international futures. Traders preferred to wait and watch till the prices stabilise after the ongoing corrective phase. Transactions continued to be low indicating short supplies.
Sheet rubber moved down to Rs 237.50 (240) a kg, according to traders. The grade closed at Rs 238.50 (239.50) a kg both at Kottayam and Kochi, according to the Rubber Board.
In futures, the May series weakened to Rs 236.79 (242.68), June to Rs 240.80 (247.04), July to Rs 241.37 (247.98), August to Rs 234.65 (239.55) and September to Rs 230.75 (232.53) a kg for RSS 4 on the NMCE.
RSS 3 (spot) surrendered to Rs 250.95 (254.38) a kg at Bangkok. The May futures declined to ¥430 (Rs 232.42) from ¥435.5 a kg during the day session but then to ¥429.7 (Rs 232.20) in the night session on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange.
Spot rates were (Rs/kg): RSS-4: 237.50 (240); RSS-5: 234 (236); ungraded: 230 (232); ISNR 20: 231.50 (233) and latex 60 per cent: 146 (147).
(This article was published in the Business Line print edition dated April 28, 2011)
Spot rubber rules steady
WEDNESDAY, APRIL 27, 2011 ADMIN
SHARE
TWEET
KOTTAYAM, APRIL 26:
Spot rubber ruled steady on Tuesday. The market seemed to be lacking initiative to set a definitive trend as traders were not interested to expand their commitments. Intermittent summer rain and expectations of an improvement in arrivals seemed to be guiding the sentiments. But it really appeared to be difficult to forecast any immediate change in the fundamental or technical position of the market.
According to traders, sheet rubber continued to remain unchanged at Rs 240 a kg amidst scattered transactions. The grade slipped to Rs 239.50 (240) a kg both at Kottayam and Kochi, according to Rubber Board.
The May series closed at Rs 242.30 (242.74), June at Rs 246.70 (247.67), July at Rs 248 (248.13), August at Rs 239.55 (239.33) and September at Rs 231.55 (230) a kg for RSS 4 on the National Multi Commodity Exchange.
RSS 3 (spot) weakened to Rs 254.38 (258.73) a kg at Bangkok. The May futures for the grade declined to ¥435.8 (Rs 237.31) from ¥442.8 a kg during the day session but then remained inactive in the night session on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange.
Spot rates were (Rs/kg): RSS-4: 240 (240); RSS-5: 236 (236); ungraded: 222 (222); ISNR 20: 233 (233) and latex 60 per cent: 147 (147)/
Tuesday, April 26, 2011
Rubber Declines on Demand Concerns Following Japan’s Earthquake Crisis
Rubber Declines on Demand Concerns Following Japan’s Earthquake Crisis
TUESDAY, APRIL 26, 2011
Rubber declined amid concern that a disruption in car production caused by Japan’s record earthquake will continue, curbing demand for the commodity.
The September-delivery contract lost as much as 3.4 percent to 404.9 yen per kilogram ($4,930 per ton) on Monday (Apr 25), extending last week’s 3.7 percent slump, before settling at 405.2 yen on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange.
Toyota Motor expects production for all models to return to normal by November or December, as the world’s biggest carmaker struggles with supply-chain disruptions caused by Japan’s largest earthquake and tsunami on record.
Top tire maker Bridgestone plans to suspend production lines and limit operating hours at factories serviced by Tokyo Electric Power to save electricity during Japan’s summer.
“The auto industry is having difficulty recovering from damage caused by the quake, raising speculation that negative influences on rubber demand may be prolonged,” said Kazuhiko Saito, an analyst at broker Fujitomi.
Toyota will begin raising production to regular levels from July in Japan and from August at overseas plants, the carmaker said in a statement on Friday (Apr 22).
The company may lose production of 300,000 vehicles in Japan and 100,000 units overseas through the end of April because of quake-related shutdowns, executive vice president Atsushi Niimi said on Friday (Apr 22).
He added that Toyota was unlikely to meet its full-year global output target of 7.7 million units.
October-delivery rubber, which was listed on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange on Monday (Apr 25), settled at 395.9 yen after opening at 413 yen.
Rubber was also sold amid concern that China, the world’s largest consumer of the raw material, may increase interest rates further to curb inflation, capping demand, Saito said.
China’s consumer prices may rise between 5.2 percent and 5.5 percent in April, according to China International Capital.
“China demand continues to slow and its low level of stockpiles showed that the country used its own reserves rather than buying raw materials in the market,” said Chaiwat Muenmee, an analyst at commodity broker DS Futures.
China’s natural-rubber inventories reportedly fell for an 11th straight week, losing 1,222 tons to an eight-year low of 14,717 tons, based on a survey of 10 warehouses in Shanghai, Shandong, Yunnan, Hainan and Tianjin, the Shanghai Futures Exchange said on Friday (Apr 22).
The physical price of Thai rubber dropped 1.4 percent to 174.55 baht ($5.83) per kilogram on Monday (Apr 25), according to the Rubber Research Institute of Thailand.
Farmers in Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia reduce tapping during the so-called wintering season from February to May, when trees shed leaves and latex production drops, according to the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries.
(Jakarta Globe, April 25, 2011)
Tokyo rubber futures fall
TUESDAY, APRIL 26, 2011
Tokyo (april 26, 2011) : key tokyo rubber futures fell 4 percent on monday on weakness in shanghai rubber futures and concern over softening demand from the japanese auto sector. the benchmark tocom rubber futures for october delivery, which debuted on monday, fell as low as 395.4 yen per kg, down 4.3 percent from its opening price, before settling at 395.9 yen, down 17.1 yen from the open.
the previous benchmark for september delivery settled down 13.8 yen at 405.2 yen per kg. the most active rubbercontract on the shanghai commodity exchange for september delivery fell 1,510 yuan ($232.057) per tonne to close at 33,270 yuan per tonne on monday.
"tocom futures slid as chinese rubber futures and stocks fell on concerns about the impact on economic growth from monetary tightening," said kazuhiko saito, chief commodities analyst at fujitomi co. he said a fall in the september delivery contract below 400 yen could pave the way for a technically weak market, as sentiment was also weighed by cuts in japanese automakers' car production following the march 11 earthquake and subsequent tsunami that severely disrupted the supply chain.
honda motor co said on monday that its production in japan would return to normal levels within this year, adding that its domestic output until the end of june would be at 50 percent of its original plans. that followed toyota motor corp, the world's biggest automaker, saying on friday that it could take until the end of 2011 before output has fully recovered to levels before the earthquake. until then, toyota's domestic factories will continue to work at volumes equivalent to half of original plans and at an average 40 percent outside japan.
toyota on monday said its vehicle production in japan fell 62.7 percent from a year earlier while its global output fell 29.9 percent year-on-year. "toyota's production plans hurt sentiment on concern that demand from the automobile sector will remain weak until the end of the year," saito said. "an expected end to japan's cap on highway tolls later this year also led to speculation that demand for tyres will drop."
"supply will also increase as producer countries are entering tapping season. buying factors are hard to find under these circumstances," saito said. farmers in thailand and malaysia, the biggest and third-biggest producers, have resumed tapping, but supplies were unlikely to rise sharply as farmers need a couple of weeks to collect latex and manufacture them into standard export-grade rubber sheets.
TUESDAY, APRIL 26, 2011
Rubber declined amid concern that a disruption in car production caused by Japan’s record earthquake will continue, curbing demand for the commodity.
The September-delivery contract lost as much as 3.4 percent to 404.9 yen per kilogram ($4,930 per ton) on Monday (Apr 25), extending last week’s 3.7 percent slump, before settling at 405.2 yen on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange.
Toyota Motor expects production for all models to return to normal by November or December, as the world’s biggest carmaker struggles with supply-chain disruptions caused by Japan’s largest earthquake and tsunami on record.
Top tire maker Bridgestone plans to suspend production lines and limit operating hours at factories serviced by Tokyo Electric Power to save electricity during Japan’s summer.
“The auto industry is having difficulty recovering from damage caused by the quake, raising speculation that negative influences on rubber demand may be prolonged,” said Kazuhiko Saito, an analyst at broker Fujitomi.
Toyota will begin raising production to regular levels from July in Japan and from August at overseas plants, the carmaker said in a statement on Friday (Apr 22).
The company may lose production of 300,000 vehicles in Japan and 100,000 units overseas through the end of April because of quake-related shutdowns, executive vice president Atsushi Niimi said on Friday (Apr 22).
He added that Toyota was unlikely to meet its full-year global output target of 7.7 million units.
October-delivery rubber, which was listed on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange on Monday (Apr 25), settled at 395.9 yen after opening at 413 yen.
Rubber was also sold amid concern that China, the world’s largest consumer of the raw material, may increase interest rates further to curb inflation, capping demand, Saito said.
China’s consumer prices may rise between 5.2 percent and 5.5 percent in April, according to China International Capital.
“China demand continues to slow and its low level of stockpiles showed that the country used its own reserves rather than buying raw materials in the market,” said Chaiwat Muenmee, an analyst at commodity broker DS Futures.
China’s natural-rubber inventories reportedly fell for an 11th straight week, losing 1,222 tons to an eight-year low of 14,717 tons, based on a survey of 10 warehouses in Shanghai, Shandong, Yunnan, Hainan and Tianjin, the Shanghai Futures Exchange said on Friday (Apr 22).
The physical price of Thai rubber dropped 1.4 percent to 174.55 baht ($5.83) per kilogram on Monday (Apr 25), according to the Rubber Research Institute of Thailand.
Farmers in Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia reduce tapping during the so-called wintering season from February to May, when trees shed leaves and latex production drops, according to the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries.
(Jakarta Globe, April 25, 2011)
Tokyo rubber futures fall
TUESDAY, APRIL 26, 2011
Tokyo (april 26, 2011) : key tokyo rubber futures fell 4 percent on monday on weakness in shanghai rubber futures and concern over softening demand from the japanese auto sector. the benchmark tocom rubber futures for october delivery, which debuted on monday, fell as low as 395.4 yen per kg, down 4.3 percent from its opening price, before settling at 395.9 yen, down 17.1 yen from the open.
the previous benchmark for september delivery settled down 13.8 yen at 405.2 yen per kg. the most active rubbercontract on the shanghai commodity exchange for september delivery fell 1,510 yuan ($232.057) per tonne to close at 33,270 yuan per tonne on monday.
"tocom futures slid as chinese rubber futures and stocks fell on concerns about the impact on economic growth from monetary tightening," said kazuhiko saito, chief commodities analyst at fujitomi co. he said a fall in the september delivery contract below 400 yen could pave the way for a technically weak market, as sentiment was also weighed by cuts in japanese automakers' car production following the march 11 earthquake and subsequent tsunami that severely disrupted the supply chain.
honda motor co said on monday that its production in japan would return to normal levels within this year, adding that its domestic output until the end of june would be at 50 percent of its original plans. that followed toyota motor corp, the world's biggest automaker, saying on friday that it could take until the end of 2011 before output has fully recovered to levels before the earthquake. until then, toyota's domestic factories will continue to work at volumes equivalent to half of original plans and at an average 40 percent outside japan.
toyota on monday said its vehicle production in japan fell 62.7 percent from a year earlier while its global output fell 29.9 percent year-on-year. "toyota's production plans hurt sentiment on concern that demand from the automobile sector will remain weak until the end of the year," saito said. "an expected end to japan's cap on highway tolls later this year also led to speculation that demand for tyres will drop."
"supply will also increase as producer countries are entering tapping season. buying factors are hard to find under these circumstances," saito said. farmers in thailand and malaysia, the biggest and third-biggest producers, have resumed tapping, but supplies were unlikely to rise sharply as farmers need a couple of weeks to collect latex and manufacture them into standard export-grade rubber sheets.
Japan Auto Output Slumps After Quake, Toyota To Lose Crown Toyota
Japan Auto Output Slumps After Quake, Toyota To Lose Crown Toyota
MONDAY, APRIL 25, 2011
Toyota Motor Co is set to lose its crown as the world's largest automaker after Japan's earthquake and nuclear disaster slashed local output by almost two-thirds in March.
Japan's auto sector has been hit hard by the disaster due to a shortage mostly of electronic and resin-based parts in the wake of the magnitude-9.0 earthquake and resulting tsunami, as well as damage to a major nuclear plant which disrupted power supplies.
Toyota said last week it could take until the end of the year before production fully recovered.
The world's largest automaker said domestic production fell 62.7 percent to 129,491 units in March, while Japan's No.2 Nissan Motor Co said its corresponding figure fell 52.4 percent to 47,590 units.
Honda Motor Co said domestic production shrank 62.9 percent to 34,754 vehicles.
Toyota is now almost certain to lose the top producer ranking it has held since 2008 to General Motors this year. Toyota sold 8.42 million vehicles last year, topping GM's 8.39 million.
Koji Endo, managing director of Advanced Research Japan in Tokyo, said Toyota was now on track to post sales of around 6.5 million units this year.
"Most likely GM will produce 8 million-plus and Volkswagon will produce around 7 million, so most likely Toyota will be third, GM will be first," Endo said.
Toyota, criticised by some analysts and investors for its aggressive expansion in the early 2000s, played down the prospect of losing its top ranking.
"When Toyota became No. 1 there were no champagne corks going off here," said Toyota spokesman Paul Nolasco. The March sales were the worst since records began in 1988, he added
Japanese automakers have not forecast what impact the production cuts will have on earnings, but analysts have been slashing their forecasts since the disaster.
"In overseas markets consumers have choices and (non-Japanese makers) probably will take some share, but I think it is an open question if those will be sustainable or temporary share changes -- my guess is that they will tend to be temporary," said Christopher Richter, an auto analyst at CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets in Tokyo.
"Probably the negative news is in the share prices and it is just a matter of time before some of this positive news starts to get imputed into share prices."
Shares in the major automakers were slightly weaker on Monday (Apr 25), with Toyota down 0.5 percent, Honda down 1.3 percent and Nissan 1.7 percent lower.
Tokyo's transport equipment sub-index has bounced about 14 percent from its post-quake low, but is still more than 6 percent below where it was before the disaster struck.
In contrast, South Korea's Hyundai Motors has surged 30 percent over the same period, hitting a record high last week on expectations it will benefit from the woes of its Japanese rivals.
"These are good times for South Korean carmakers. They will gain market share, raise utilization rates," said Park Jong-min, a fund manager at ING Investment Management in Seoul. "They will also reduce incentives, which will help cut costs."
The disaster has been a major setback for the world's third-largest economy, with exports falling faster than forecast in March and industrial output data due on Thursday (Apr 28) expected to show a record decline. Some economists expect industrial production to fall as much as a quarter, month-on-month, in March.
Uncertainty on the earnings outlook is likely to linger well into the financial year which started on April 1. Many companies are expected to refrain from giving 2012 earnings guidance during the current fourth quarter reporting season and those that do are expected to paint a bleak picture.
"One source of concern is that analysts have not cut their estimates for the current year by very much," said Koji Toda, chief fund manager at Resona Bank in Tokyo. "I think many are leaving their figures unchanged because they don't have enough information to decide how far to cut them."
For Toyota, 11 analysts who revised their forecasts after the earthquake forecast an average operating profit of 281.9 billion yen for the year to March 2012.
That is down 65 percent from the consensus of 804 billion yen from 21 analysts before the quake, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Toyota announces its results on May 11, but it is not certain if it will provide its own forecast.
(Reuters, April 25, 2011)
Acquire foreign land to promote rubber cultivation: IRDF
MONDAY, APRIL 25, 2011
KOCHI (Commodity Online): Indian Rubber Dealer’s Federation (IRDF) has suggested the India government to acquire land in other countries and encourage rubber cultivation.
China is already having an early bird advantage in this regard. The country, one of the biggest consumers of natural rubber is acquiring plantations in other regions(South East Asia and Africa) with suitable climate to enhance rubber output, Financial Express reported.
Sri Lanka can be a possible destination for India in this regard, IRDF President George Valy, said.
There is limited scope for expansion in rubber cultivation in Kerala, Tamil Nadu and North East. Demand supply-gap in the 2010-11 fiscal stood at 87,255 tons, as compared to 99,165 tons in the previous year.
In January, there were reports that Harrisons Malayalam(HM), India’s largest rubber plantation and top producer of natural rubber was scouting Ethiopia, Cameroon, Ghana and Indonesia for acquiring plantations.
Besides, HM have plans for India’s North Eastern state of Tripura, where the conditions have been proven to be ideal for rubber plantations.
The company already owns 7000 ha in plantations but is producing only half of its total annual capacity of 10,000 tons, reported The Financial Express in November.
HM may opt for a JV or leasing of land to the tune of 10,000 ha, as demand from tyre, latex, sports good and glove manufacturers surge, said the report.
A high level working group of the Government of India last year had given approval for the acquisition of farm lands in foreign countries.
The government is said to have offered full support for Indian companies in this regard.
Arable land in India is shrinking like never before. In 2005, the arable land accounted for 48.83 % of the country. But now, it has shrunk drastically with increasing urbanization.
The idea of farm land outsourcing is not new, given the fact that many major cash-rich economies have started this long before. Over 20 million hectares of land has already been sold, globally as on November 2010.
China, Saudi Arabia, and South Korea top the charts on this account. Japan, a big player, has acquired lands in foreign countries thrice the size of its domestic farm fields!
The only deterrent in this endeavour is the local resistance that may come along with acquisition of farm lands. This trend is very much evident in countries like Mozambique and Madagascar.
Asia Rubber: Tyre grade slips on demand fears; China shy away
MONDAY, APRIL 25, 2011
SINGAPORE, April 25 — Prices of tyre grade slipped today as rubber futures tumbled on fears about weakening demand from auto makers, while main consumer China turned to cheaper cargo kept in domestic warehouses, dealers said.
Indonesia’s SIR20 grade changed hands late last week at US$4.885 (RM14.655) a kg for June shipment, down from US$5.68 a kg offered last Monday. Malaysia’s SMR20 was traded slightly above $5 as sellers struggled to find consumers.
The physical market bore the brunt of selling on Tokyo and Shanghai rubber futures as sentiment turned bearish after a devastating earthquake hit auto production in Japan, and China tightened the economy.
Toyota Motor Co is set to lose its crown as the world’s largest automaker after Japan’s earthquake and nuclear disaster slashed local output by almost two-thirds in March.
“I think we are lucky if we can still sell rubber at US$5 a kg. We offered rubber at US$4.87 but nothing happened,” said a dealer in Indonesia’s main growing island of Sumatra.
“The market is moving so fast and prices can change from morning to afternoon. Prices in China are already quite low,” he added.
The most active contract on Tokyo Commodity Exchange, currently October 2011 hit in intraday low of ¥395.4 a kg, its weakest since late March — well below a lifetime high around ¥535 struck in February.
Thai’s RSS3 grade, often regarded as a benchmark physical price, has slipped more than 8 per cent since hitting a record at US$6.40 a kg in February to track declines in futures market, although erratic weather in producing countries helped cushion the fall.
There were no deals for RSS3 and another Thai grade, STR20, as Chinese buyers switched to rubber already stored in warehouses on worries that Beijing’s monetary tightening could slash demand.
China’s turbo-charged growth eased just a touch in the first quarter, while its inflation jumped to a 32-month high, putting pressure on the government to do more to rein in prices and keep the economy on an even keel.
Dealers said SIR20 fetched a discount of up to US$100 to the prices quoted by dealers in Southeast Asia, while Thai grades were around US$20 cheaper as overstocked Chinese importers cut prices to attract tyre makers.
Week ahead
Worries about demand were likely to persist in coming weeks, but China could be tempted to buy on dips if domestic inventories kept falling.
Rubber inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 7.7 per cent to 14,717 tonnes last Friday.
“We will be very happy if we can sell rubber at US$5 today because the market has gone down so much. Rubber in China is cheap and there’s a big discount there,” said a dealer in Singapore. “Prices in China are below US$5 a kg.” — Reuters
Tokyo Futures Ease On Stronger Yen, In Narrow Ranges
MONDAY, APRIL 25, 2011
Key Tokyo rubber futures eased on Monday (Apr 25) as a stronger yen hurt sentiment, but prices stayed in narrow ranges ahead of Japan's Golden Week holidays.
FUNDAMENTALS
The benchmark rubber contract on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange for October delivery, which debuted on Monday (Apr 25), stood at 408.5 yen per kg as of 0030 GMT.
The previous benchmark for September delivery was down 1.4 yen at 417.6 yen, after settling Friday (Apr 22) up 1.6 percent or 6.7 yen at 419.0 yen.
Deliveries against the April rubber futures contract, which expired on Friday (Apr 22), were 305 lots or 1,525 tonnes, the smallest amount in four months.
The most-active rubber contract on the Shanghai Commodity Exchange for September delivery rose 270 yuan to settle at 34,780 yuan ($5,355.772) per tonne on Friday (Apr 22).
Oil was up in early trade on Monday (Apr 22), supported by a weak dollar.
The dollar stayed under pressure near a three-year low against a basket of currencies.
(Reuters, April 25, 2011)
MONDAY, APRIL 25, 2011
Toyota Motor Co is set to lose its crown as the world's largest automaker after Japan's earthquake and nuclear disaster slashed local output by almost two-thirds in March.
Japan's auto sector has been hit hard by the disaster due to a shortage mostly of electronic and resin-based parts in the wake of the magnitude-9.0 earthquake and resulting tsunami, as well as damage to a major nuclear plant which disrupted power supplies.
Toyota said last week it could take until the end of the year before production fully recovered.
The world's largest automaker said domestic production fell 62.7 percent to 129,491 units in March, while Japan's No.2 Nissan Motor Co said its corresponding figure fell 52.4 percent to 47,590 units.
Honda Motor Co said domestic production shrank 62.9 percent to 34,754 vehicles.
Toyota is now almost certain to lose the top producer ranking it has held since 2008 to General Motors this year. Toyota sold 8.42 million vehicles last year, topping GM's 8.39 million.
Koji Endo, managing director of Advanced Research Japan in Tokyo, said Toyota was now on track to post sales of around 6.5 million units this year.
"Most likely GM will produce 8 million-plus and Volkswagon will produce around 7 million, so most likely Toyota will be third, GM will be first," Endo said.
Toyota, criticised by some analysts and investors for its aggressive expansion in the early 2000s, played down the prospect of losing its top ranking.
"When Toyota became No. 1 there were no champagne corks going off here," said Toyota spokesman Paul Nolasco. The March sales were the worst since records began in 1988, he added
Japanese automakers have not forecast what impact the production cuts will have on earnings, but analysts have been slashing their forecasts since the disaster.
"In overseas markets consumers have choices and (non-Japanese makers) probably will take some share, but I think it is an open question if those will be sustainable or temporary share changes -- my guess is that they will tend to be temporary," said Christopher Richter, an auto analyst at CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets in Tokyo.
"Probably the negative news is in the share prices and it is just a matter of time before some of this positive news starts to get imputed into share prices."
Shares in the major automakers were slightly weaker on Monday (Apr 25), with Toyota down 0.5 percent, Honda down 1.3 percent and Nissan 1.7 percent lower.
Tokyo's transport equipment sub-index has bounced about 14 percent from its post-quake low, but is still more than 6 percent below where it was before the disaster struck.
In contrast, South Korea's Hyundai Motors has surged 30 percent over the same period, hitting a record high last week on expectations it will benefit from the woes of its Japanese rivals.
"These are good times for South Korean carmakers. They will gain market share, raise utilization rates," said Park Jong-min, a fund manager at ING Investment Management in Seoul. "They will also reduce incentives, which will help cut costs."
The disaster has been a major setback for the world's third-largest economy, with exports falling faster than forecast in March and industrial output data due on Thursday (Apr 28) expected to show a record decline. Some economists expect industrial production to fall as much as a quarter, month-on-month, in March.
Uncertainty on the earnings outlook is likely to linger well into the financial year which started on April 1. Many companies are expected to refrain from giving 2012 earnings guidance during the current fourth quarter reporting season and those that do are expected to paint a bleak picture.
"One source of concern is that analysts have not cut their estimates for the current year by very much," said Koji Toda, chief fund manager at Resona Bank in Tokyo. "I think many are leaving their figures unchanged because they don't have enough information to decide how far to cut them."
For Toyota, 11 analysts who revised their forecasts after the earthquake forecast an average operating profit of 281.9 billion yen for the year to March 2012.
That is down 65 percent from the consensus of 804 billion yen from 21 analysts before the quake, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Toyota announces its results on May 11, but it is not certain if it will provide its own forecast.
(Reuters, April 25, 2011)
Acquire foreign land to promote rubber cultivation: IRDF
MONDAY, APRIL 25, 2011
KOCHI (Commodity Online): Indian Rubber Dealer’s Federation (IRDF) has suggested the India government to acquire land in other countries and encourage rubber cultivation.
China is already having an early bird advantage in this regard. The country, one of the biggest consumers of natural rubber is acquiring plantations in other regions(South East Asia and Africa) with suitable climate to enhance rubber output, Financial Express reported.
Sri Lanka can be a possible destination for India in this regard, IRDF President George Valy, said.
There is limited scope for expansion in rubber cultivation in Kerala, Tamil Nadu and North East. Demand supply-gap in the 2010-11 fiscal stood at 87,255 tons, as compared to 99,165 tons in the previous year.
In January, there were reports that Harrisons Malayalam(HM), India’s largest rubber plantation and top producer of natural rubber was scouting Ethiopia, Cameroon, Ghana and Indonesia for acquiring plantations.
Besides, HM have plans for India’s North Eastern state of Tripura, where the conditions have been proven to be ideal for rubber plantations.
The company already owns 7000 ha in plantations but is producing only half of its total annual capacity of 10,000 tons, reported The Financial Express in November.
HM may opt for a JV or leasing of land to the tune of 10,000 ha, as demand from tyre, latex, sports good and glove manufacturers surge, said the report.
A high level working group of the Government of India last year had given approval for the acquisition of farm lands in foreign countries.
The government is said to have offered full support for Indian companies in this regard.
Arable land in India is shrinking like never before. In 2005, the arable land accounted for 48.83 % of the country. But now, it has shrunk drastically with increasing urbanization.
The idea of farm land outsourcing is not new, given the fact that many major cash-rich economies have started this long before. Over 20 million hectares of land has already been sold, globally as on November 2010.
China, Saudi Arabia, and South Korea top the charts on this account. Japan, a big player, has acquired lands in foreign countries thrice the size of its domestic farm fields!
The only deterrent in this endeavour is the local resistance that may come along with acquisition of farm lands. This trend is very much evident in countries like Mozambique and Madagascar.
Asia Rubber: Tyre grade slips on demand fears; China shy away
MONDAY, APRIL 25, 2011
SINGAPORE, April 25 — Prices of tyre grade slipped today as rubber futures tumbled on fears about weakening demand from auto makers, while main consumer China turned to cheaper cargo kept in domestic warehouses, dealers said.
Indonesia’s SIR20 grade changed hands late last week at US$4.885 (RM14.655) a kg for June shipment, down from US$5.68 a kg offered last Monday. Malaysia’s SMR20 was traded slightly above $5 as sellers struggled to find consumers.
The physical market bore the brunt of selling on Tokyo and Shanghai rubber futures as sentiment turned bearish after a devastating earthquake hit auto production in Japan, and China tightened the economy.
Toyota Motor Co is set to lose its crown as the world’s largest automaker after Japan’s earthquake and nuclear disaster slashed local output by almost two-thirds in March.
“I think we are lucky if we can still sell rubber at US$5 a kg. We offered rubber at US$4.87 but nothing happened,” said a dealer in Indonesia’s main growing island of Sumatra.
“The market is moving so fast and prices can change from morning to afternoon. Prices in China are already quite low,” he added.
The most active contract on Tokyo Commodity Exchange, currently October 2011 hit in intraday low of ¥395.4 a kg, its weakest since late March — well below a lifetime high around ¥535 struck in February.
Thai’s RSS3 grade, often regarded as a benchmark physical price, has slipped more than 8 per cent since hitting a record at US$6.40 a kg in February to track declines in futures market, although erratic weather in producing countries helped cushion the fall.
There were no deals for RSS3 and another Thai grade, STR20, as Chinese buyers switched to rubber already stored in warehouses on worries that Beijing’s monetary tightening could slash demand.
China’s turbo-charged growth eased just a touch in the first quarter, while its inflation jumped to a 32-month high, putting pressure on the government to do more to rein in prices and keep the economy on an even keel.
Dealers said SIR20 fetched a discount of up to US$100 to the prices quoted by dealers in Southeast Asia, while Thai grades were around US$20 cheaper as overstocked Chinese importers cut prices to attract tyre makers.
Week ahead
Worries about demand were likely to persist in coming weeks, but China could be tempted to buy on dips if domestic inventories kept falling.
Rubber inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 7.7 per cent to 14,717 tonnes last Friday.
“We will be very happy if we can sell rubber at US$5 today because the market has gone down so much. Rubber in China is cheap and there’s a big discount there,” said a dealer in Singapore. “Prices in China are below US$5 a kg.” — Reuters
Tokyo Futures Ease On Stronger Yen, In Narrow Ranges
MONDAY, APRIL 25, 2011
Key Tokyo rubber futures eased on Monday (Apr 25) as a stronger yen hurt sentiment, but prices stayed in narrow ranges ahead of Japan's Golden Week holidays.
FUNDAMENTALS
The benchmark rubber contract on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange for October delivery, which debuted on Monday (Apr 25), stood at 408.5 yen per kg as of 0030 GMT.
The previous benchmark for September delivery was down 1.4 yen at 417.6 yen, after settling Friday (Apr 22) up 1.6 percent or 6.7 yen at 419.0 yen.
Deliveries against the April rubber futures contract, which expired on Friday (Apr 22), were 305 lots or 1,525 tonnes, the smallest amount in four months.
The most-active rubber contract on the Shanghai Commodity Exchange for September delivery rose 270 yuan to settle at 34,780 yuan ($5,355.772) per tonne on Friday (Apr 22).
Oil was up in early trade on Monday (Apr 22), supported by a weak dollar.
The dollar stayed under pressure near a three-year low against a basket of currencies.
(Reuters, April 25, 2011)
Monday, April 25, 2011
Rubber board estimates 2011-12 consumption at 9.77 lakh tn
Rubber board estimates 2011-12 consumption at 9.77 lakh tn
FRIDAY, APRIL 22, 2011
New Delhi, Apr 22 (PTI) Natural rubber consumption is expected to increase to 9.77 lakh tonnes in the 2011-12 fiscal, around three per cent increase from the last fiscal, as a result of growing demand from the automobile sector, Rubber Board Chairman Sheela Thomas said.
India had consumed 9.49 lakh tonnes of natural rubber in the previous fiscal largely on back of growth in tyre production in the automobile sector, which grew by 23 per cent.
"The consumption is definitely increasing with growth in the automobile sector and in the 2011-12 period we are expecting an increase in demand from tyre manufacturing industry," Indian Rubber Dealers Federation President George Valy told PTI.
The natural rubber production for 2011-12 is being anticipated at 9.02 lakhs tonnes, Thomas added.
According to the International Rubber Study Group, global rubber demand is likely to rise by 4.6 per cent to 26.1 million tonnes in 2011 and by 3.8 per cent to 27.5 million tonnes in 2012.
India: Spot rubber remains steady
SUNDAY, APRIL 24, 2011
KOTTAYAM, APRIL 23:
Spot rubber was steady on Saturday. The market continued to be in a holiday mood prior to Easter.
Sheet rubber finished unchanged at Rs 240 a kg amidst scattered transactions.
The volumes were extremely dull as most of the traders had been on long holidays.
FUTURES IMPROVE
The May series improved to Rs 244.87 (243.68), June to Rs 249.74 (248.14), July to Rs 250.45 (248.55), August to Rs 242 (241) and September to Rs 233.05 (232.50) a kg for RSS 4 on the National Multi Commodity Exchange (NMCE).
Spot rates were (Rs/kg): RSS-4: 240 (240); RSS-5: 236 (236); ungraded: 222 (222); ISNR 20: 233 (233) and latex 60 per cent: 147 (147).
Rubber output may dip, tyres to be expensive
FRIDAY, APRIL 22, 2011
Rubber production in Thailand, the world’s largest grower and exporter, may decline for the first time in four years if rain persists across key plantations in the country’s south, according to the Thai Rubber Association.
Output may fall to 3.2 million tonnes this year, down from an earlier estimate of 3.49 million tonnes, said Luckchai Kittipol, president of the group. Production last year totaled 3.25 million tonnes, according to the group. That would be the first annual decline since 2007.
Lower output from Thailand, which accounts for 30 per cent of global supply, would mean less raw material for tyre companies such as Bridgestone Corp, Michelin & Cie. and Goodyear Tyre & Rubber Co, the top three tyre makers, potentially increasing their costs.
“Obviously, this would drive rubber prices higher and will increase production costs for tyre companies, especially truck tyre makers as they use massive volumes of rubber,” Niels Fehre, an analyst at HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt AG, said by phone on Thursday from Dusseldorf.
Unseasonal rain from the start of the year caused by a La Nina weather pattern boosted Thailand’s sugar output to record levels, while inundating rubber plantations in the south. Rains may have cut rubber output by 30,000 tonnes in the second quarter, Luckchai said. Futures of the commodity used in tyres and gloves have climbed 27 per cent in the past year.
‘HURTING PRODUCTION’
“Floods in southern Thailand have been hurting rubber production,” Luckchai said on Thursday in a phone interview.
The loss forecast was 50 per cent higher than an initial estimate on March 30. “We have to continue monitoring the weather to see how bad it will affect rubber output this year,” he said.
Thai production may total 3.43 million tonnes this year from 3.25 million tonnes last year, the Kuala Lumpur-based Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries said in a March report. The September-delivery contract declined 3.2 per cent to settle at 412.3 yen a kg ($5,024 a tonne) on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange.
Unseasonal rains from the start of this year in Thailand caused floods in 10 southern provinces in March and may damage about 50,000 rai (19,641 acres) of rubber plantations, according to the Department of Disaster Prevention & Mitigation. Water levels have since receded, it said.
Fourteen provinces in Thai south account for 80 per cent of the country’s output, according to the Office of Agricultural Economics.
India: Sheet rubber ends flat
FRIDAY, APRIL 22, 2011
KOTTAYAM, APRIL 21:
Spot rubber closed unchanged on Thursday. Traders were in a holiday mood, it being Maundy Thursday. According to observers, the market is likely to remain range-bound till Monday, and it would remain closed on the 22nd owing to Good Friday. The volumes were dull.
Sheet rubber finished flat at Rs 240 a kg amid scattered transactions. The grade was steady at Rs 239 a kg both at Kottayam and Kochi, as reported by the Rubber Board.
In futures, the May series closed at Rs 243.75 (Rs 244.61), June at Rs 248.59 (Rs 248.78), July at Rs 249 (Rs 249.58), August at Rs 241 (Rs 242.90), September at Rs 233.80 (Rs 232.65) and October at Rs 232.50 (Rs 233) a kg for RSS-4 on the National Multi-Commodity Exchange.
The volumes totalled 6,018 lots and open interest 7,113 lots. The turnover was Rs 146.99 crores.
RSS-3 (spot) slipped to Rs 262.16 (Rs 263.02) a kg at Bangkok. The April futures for the grade weakened to ¥445 (Rs 240.48) from ¥454.9 a kg during the day session, but recovered partially to ¥452 (Rs 244.26) in the night session on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange.
Spot rates were (Rs/kg): RSS-4: 240 (240); RSS-5: 236 (236); ungraded: 222 (222); ISNR 20: 233 (233) and latex 60 per cent: 147 (147).
India should follow China to enhance rubber output
SUNDAY, APRIL 24, 2011
New Delhi, Apr 24 (PTI) The domestic rubber industry has suggested the government to expand the country''s rubber output by following the Chinese model of acquiring land in other countries for plantation.
"We have recommended the government to follow China for expansion in rubber production. China has recently been acquiring land in other countries to undertake rubber plantation to meet its growing demand," Indian Rubber Dealers Federation (IRDF) President George Valy told PTI.
India should study the Chinese model of rubber expansion (in Southeast Asia and Africa) as the former is also facing the problem of limited land resources for rubber plantation, he said.
According to IRDF, "Sri Lanka can be a possible destination for acquiring plantations due to its proximity, favourable climate and un-tapped potential."
Echoing similar views, South-based rubber producers said that there is limited scope to expand rubber plantation in states like Kerala, Tamil Nadu and North East. "So, foreign location is a viable option," they suggested.
The proposal emerged during the recent consultative workshop on the rubber sector organised by the Commerce Ministry for taking views of the domestic rubber industry for designing a rubber policy for the 12th Five Year Plan.
Besides IRDF, All India Rubber Industry Association and Automotive Tyre Manufacturers'' Association (ATMA) were among others present in the workshop.
The industry bodies said the domestic rubber availability is a matter of concern as the demand-supply gap is widening.
"In the medium to long-term, prospects of availability of natural rubber is a concern and it is about time that the government should look for options abroad," an ATMA official said, adding that the gap is expected to rise this fiscal in view of rising demand from the automobile sector.
According to official data, the demand supply-gap in the 2010-11 fiscal was 87,255 tonnes, as compared to 99,165 tonnes in the previous year.
By 2020, the demand and supply gap is expected to widen by 3-5 lakh tonnes considering the current pace of development in automobile and other rubber users industry.
The domestic production of natural rubber is 8,61,950 tonnes FY''11, as against the demand of 9,49,205 tonnes in the same period.
Rubber mart to remain quiet next week
SATURDAY, APRIL 23, 2011
The Malaysian rubber market is likely to remain quiet next week as some players are expected to stay on the sidelines and await further drop in prices, dealers said.
However, they said the market's underlying fundamentals remained intact due to the tight supply in major producing countries.
During the week just-ended, local rubber prices eased amid a lack of strong buying.
The rubber market was closed on Friday due to the Good Friday celebration.
On a Friday-to-Thursday basis, the Malaysian Rubber Board's official daily physical price for tyre-grade SMR 20 declined 59.0 sen to 1,478 per kg from 1,537.0 last Friday and latex-in-bulk eased 35.5 sen to 1,029.0 sen per kg from to 1,064.5 sen per kg previously.
Meanwhile, MRB's unofficial price for tyre-grade SMR 20 fell 62.5 sen to 1,470.0 sen per kg from to 1,532.5 sen per kg last Friday and latex-in-bulk slipped 35.5 sen to 1,025.0 sen per kg from 1,060.5 sen per kg previously. – Bernama
Rubber Futures in Tokyo Advance as China, India Demand May Exceed Supplies
FRIDAY, APRIL 22, 2011
Rubber, set for a second weekly decline, climbed on concerns that demand may outpace supply during the low-production season in Southeast Asia.
The September-delivery contract advanced as much as 3.1 percent to 425 yen per kilogram ($5,200 a metric ton) and traded at 421.2 yen on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange at 10:43 a.m. Futures are set for a 3.1 percent decline this week.
“Rubber demand from China and India is still high, while supply remains low in the short term,” said Masahiro Tamagawa, senior manager at H.S. Futures Co. Prices are in so-called backwardation, when nearby contracts are more expensive than long-term ones, he said.
Consumption in China, the largest buyer, is expected to grow by 6 percent this year to 3.5 million tons, the Kuala Lumpur-based Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries said in a March report. India’s demand may rise 5 percent to 991,000 tons, it said.
Michelin & Cie., the world’s second-largest tire maker, said first-quarter revenue rose 28 percent 5.05 billion euros ($7.36 billion), led by surging demand for speciality tires to equip construction equipment and agricultural vehicles.
Thai output may decline from last year if rains that caused floods persist, according to the Thai Rubber Association. Production may be 3.2 million tons this year, Luckchai Kittipol, president of the group, said April 21. That compares with last year’s 3.25 million tons and an earlier 2011 target of 3.49 million tons.
Thai Output
Unseasonal rains from the start of this year in Thailand caused floods in 10 southern provinces in March that may have damaged about 50,000 rai (19,641 acres) of rubber plantations, according to the Department of Disaster Prevention & Mitigation. Water levels have since receded, it said.
Farmers in Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia reduce tapping during so-called wintering, from February to May, when trees shed leaves and latex production drops, according to the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries.
The physical price of Thai rubber was unchanged at 177.05 baht ($5.90) per kilogram yesterday, according to the Rubber Research Institute of Thailand.
Rubber for September delivery in Shanghai advanced as much as 2 percent to 35,195 yuan ($5,420) a ton before trading at 35,135 yuan at 09:09 a.m. local time.
FRIDAY, APRIL 22, 2011
New Delhi, Apr 22 (PTI) Natural rubber consumption is expected to increase to 9.77 lakh tonnes in the 2011-12 fiscal, around three per cent increase from the last fiscal, as a result of growing demand from the automobile sector, Rubber Board Chairman Sheela Thomas said.
India had consumed 9.49 lakh tonnes of natural rubber in the previous fiscal largely on back of growth in tyre production in the automobile sector, which grew by 23 per cent.
"The consumption is definitely increasing with growth in the automobile sector and in the 2011-12 period we are expecting an increase in demand from tyre manufacturing industry," Indian Rubber Dealers Federation President George Valy told PTI.
The natural rubber production for 2011-12 is being anticipated at 9.02 lakhs tonnes, Thomas added.
According to the International Rubber Study Group, global rubber demand is likely to rise by 4.6 per cent to 26.1 million tonnes in 2011 and by 3.8 per cent to 27.5 million tonnes in 2012.
India: Spot rubber remains steady
SUNDAY, APRIL 24, 2011
KOTTAYAM, APRIL 23:
Spot rubber was steady on Saturday. The market continued to be in a holiday mood prior to Easter.
Sheet rubber finished unchanged at Rs 240 a kg amidst scattered transactions.
The volumes were extremely dull as most of the traders had been on long holidays.
FUTURES IMPROVE
The May series improved to Rs 244.87 (243.68), June to Rs 249.74 (248.14), July to Rs 250.45 (248.55), August to Rs 242 (241) and September to Rs 233.05 (232.50) a kg for RSS 4 on the National Multi Commodity Exchange (NMCE).
Spot rates were (Rs/kg): RSS-4: 240 (240); RSS-5: 236 (236); ungraded: 222 (222); ISNR 20: 233 (233) and latex 60 per cent: 147 (147).
Rubber output may dip, tyres to be expensive
FRIDAY, APRIL 22, 2011
Rubber production in Thailand, the world’s largest grower and exporter, may decline for the first time in four years if rain persists across key plantations in the country’s south, according to the Thai Rubber Association.
Output may fall to 3.2 million tonnes this year, down from an earlier estimate of 3.49 million tonnes, said Luckchai Kittipol, president of the group. Production last year totaled 3.25 million tonnes, according to the group. That would be the first annual decline since 2007.
Lower output from Thailand, which accounts for 30 per cent of global supply, would mean less raw material for tyre companies such as Bridgestone Corp, Michelin & Cie. and Goodyear Tyre & Rubber Co, the top three tyre makers, potentially increasing their costs.
“Obviously, this would drive rubber prices higher and will increase production costs for tyre companies, especially truck tyre makers as they use massive volumes of rubber,” Niels Fehre, an analyst at HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt AG, said by phone on Thursday from Dusseldorf.
Unseasonal rain from the start of the year caused by a La Nina weather pattern boosted Thailand’s sugar output to record levels, while inundating rubber plantations in the south. Rains may have cut rubber output by 30,000 tonnes in the second quarter, Luckchai said. Futures of the commodity used in tyres and gloves have climbed 27 per cent in the past year.
‘HURTING PRODUCTION’
“Floods in southern Thailand have been hurting rubber production,” Luckchai said on Thursday in a phone interview.
The loss forecast was 50 per cent higher than an initial estimate on March 30. “We have to continue monitoring the weather to see how bad it will affect rubber output this year,” he said.
Thai production may total 3.43 million tonnes this year from 3.25 million tonnes last year, the Kuala Lumpur-based Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries said in a March report. The September-delivery contract declined 3.2 per cent to settle at 412.3 yen a kg ($5,024 a tonne) on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange.
Unseasonal rains from the start of this year in Thailand caused floods in 10 southern provinces in March and may damage about 50,000 rai (19,641 acres) of rubber plantations, according to the Department of Disaster Prevention & Mitigation. Water levels have since receded, it said.
Fourteen provinces in Thai south account for 80 per cent of the country’s output, according to the Office of Agricultural Economics.
India: Sheet rubber ends flat
FRIDAY, APRIL 22, 2011
KOTTAYAM, APRIL 21:
Spot rubber closed unchanged on Thursday. Traders were in a holiday mood, it being Maundy Thursday. According to observers, the market is likely to remain range-bound till Monday, and it would remain closed on the 22nd owing to Good Friday. The volumes were dull.
Sheet rubber finished flat at Rs 240 a kg amid scattered transactions. The grade was steady at Rs 239 a kg both at Kottayam and Kochi, as reported by the Rubber Board.
In futures, the May series closed at Rs 243.75 (Rs 244.61), June at Rs 248.59 (Rs 248.78), July at Rs 249 (Rs 249.58), August at Rs 241 (Rs 242.90), September at Rs 233.80 (Rs 232.65) and October at Rs 232.50 (Rs 233) a kg for RSS-4 on the National Multi-Commodity Exchange.
The volumes totalled 6,018 lots and open interest 7,113 lots. The turnover was Rs 146.99 crores.
RSS-3 (spot) slipped to Rs 262.16 (Rs 263.02) a kg at Bangkok. The April futures for the grade weakened to ¥445 (Rs 240.48) from ¥454.9 a kg during the day session, but recovered partially to ¥452 (Rs 244.26) in the night session on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange.
Spot rates were (Rs/kg): RSS-4: 240 (240); RSS-5: 236 (236); ungraded: 222 (222); ISNR 20: 233 (233) and latex 60 per cent: 147 (147).
India should follow China to enhance rubber output
SUNDAY, APRIL 24, 2011
New Delhi, Apr 24 (PTI) The domestic rubber industry has suggested the government to expand the country''s rubber output by following the Chinese model of acquiring land in other countries for plantation.
"We have recommended the government to follow China for expansion in rubber production. China has recently been acquiring land in other countries to undertake rubber plantation to meet its growing demand," Indian Rubber Dealers Federation (IRDF) President George Valy told PTI.
India should study the Chinese model of rubber expansion (in Southeast Asia and Africa) as the former is also facing the problem of limited land resources for rubber plantation, he said.
According to IRDF, "Sri Lanka can be a possible destination for acquiring plantations due to its proximity, favourable climate and un-tapped potential."
Echoing similar views, South-based rubber producers said that there is limited scope to expand rubber plantation in states like Kerala, Tamil Nadu and North East. "So, foreign location is a viable option," they suggested.
The proposal emerged during the recent consultative workshop on the rubber sector organised by the Commerce Ministry for taking views of the domestic rubber industry for designing a rubber policy for the 12th Five Year Plan.
Besides IRDF, All India Rubber Industry Association and Automotive Tyre Manufacturers'' Association (ATMA) were among others present in the workshop.
The industry bodies said the domestic rubber availability is a matter of concern as the demand-supply gap is widening.
"In the medium to long-term, prospects of availability of natural rubber is a concern and it is about time that the government should look for options abroad," an ATMA official said, adding that the gap is expected to rise this fiscal in view of rising demand from the automobile sector.
According to official data, the demand supply-gap in the 2010-11 fiscal was 87,255 tonnes, as compared to 99,165 tonnes in the previous year.
By 2020, the demand and supply gap is expected to widen by 3-5 lakh tonnes considering the current pace of development in automobile and other rubber users industry.
The domestic production of natural rubber is 8,61,950 tonnes FY''11, as against the demand of 9,49,205 tonnes in the same period.
Rubber mart to remain quiet next week
SATURDAY, APRIL 23, 2011
The Malaysian rubber market is likely to remain quiet next week as some players are expected to stay on the sidelines and await further drop in prices, dealers said.
However, they said the market's underlying fundamentals remained intact due to the tight supply in major producing countries.
During the week just-ended, local rubber prices eased amid a lack of strong buying.
The rubber market was closed on Friday due to the Good Friday celebration.
On a Friday-to-Thursday basis, the Malaysian Rubber Board's official daily physical price for tyre-grade SMR 20 declined 59.0 sen to 1,478 per kg from 1,537.0 last Friday and latex-in-bulk eased 35.5 sen to 1,029.0 sen per kg from to 1,064.5 sen per kg previously.
Meanwhile, MRB's unofficial price for tyre-grade SMR 20 fell 62.5 sen to 1,470.0 sen per kg from to 1,532.5 sen per kg last Friday and latex-in-bulk slipped 35.5 sen to 1,025.0 sen per kg from 1,060.5 sen per kg previously. – Bernama
Rubber Futures in Tokyo Advance as China, India Demand May Exceed Supplies
FRIDAY, APRIL 22, 2011
Rubber, set for a second weekly decline, climbed on concerns that demand may outpace supply during the low-production season in Southeast Asia.
The September-delivery contract advanced as much as 3.1 percent to 425 yen per kilogram ($5,200 a metric ton) and traded at 421.2 yen on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange at 10:43 a.m. Futures are set for a 3.1 percent decline this week.
“Rubber demand from China and India is still high, while supply remains low in the short term,” said Masahiro Tamagawa, senior manager at H.S. Futures Co. Prices are in so-called backwardation, when nearby contracts are more expensive than long-term ones, he said.
Consumption in China, the largest buyer, is expected to grow by 6 percent this year to 3.5 million tons, the Kuala Lumpur-based Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries said in a March report. India’s demand may rise 5 percent to 991,000 tons, it said.
Michelin & Cie., the world’s second-largest tire maker, said first-quarter revenue rose 28 percent 5.05 billion euros ($7.36 billion), led by surging demand for speciality tires to equip construction equipment and agricultural vehicles.
Thai output may decline from last year if rains that caused floods persist, according to the Thai Rubber Association. Production may be 3.2 million tons this year, Luckchai Kittipol, president of the group, said April 21. That compares with last year’s 3.25 million tons and an earlier 2011 target of 3.49 million tons.
Thai Output
Unseasonal rains from the start of this year in Thailand caused floods in 10 southern provinces in March that may have damaged about 50,000 rai (19,641 acres) of rubber plantations, according to the Department of Disaster Prevention & Mitigation. Water levels have since receded, it said.
Farmers in Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia reduce tapping during so-called wintering, from February to May, when trees shed leaves and latex production drops, according to the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries.
The physical price of Thai rubber was unchanged at 177.05 baht ($5.90) per kilogram yesterday, according to the Rubber Research Institute of Thailand.
Rubber for September delivery in Shanghai advanced as much as 2 percent to 35,195 yuan ($5,420) a ton before trading at 35,135 yuan at 09:09 a.m. local time.
Thursday, April 21, 2011
NMCE Rubber gains tracking TOCOM futures
NMCE Rubber gains tracking TOCOM futures
THURSDAY, APRIL 21, 2011
NMCE rubber futures reversed the trend on fresh buying at lower level on Wednesday. TOCOM futures market also traded up on short covering and September futures settled at ¥425.20 per Kg.
Domestic spot market also witnessed recovery after a continuous fall which supported the futures prices to trade higher. Therefore, taking cues from domestic spot and international market futures ended the day on higher note.
The rubbers futures are projected to continue the recovery on lower level buying on Thursday. However, TOCOM September futures are trading slightly down at ¥413.00 per Kg. on fresh selling on gains.
Concern of demand may decline from US as they have cut government spending which is likely to weigh on prices. Thus, in Indian market overall trend is likely to be very volatile.
Factors to Watch For
According to Bloomberg sources, China’s is likely to increase the interest rate for 5th time on rising concern of inflation
Decision of reduction in government spending by Us is also pressurizing the prices as demand for commodity used in auto industry is likely to decline
According to Department of Disaster Prevention & Mitigation, around 19,641 acres of rubber plantations have been damaged in Thailand due to heavy flood
According to the Rubber Research Institute of Thailand, The physical price of Thai rubber dropped to 177.3 baht ($5.89) a kilogram Tuesday
DERIVATIVE ANALYSIS
Indian Futures (NMCE)
The NMCE May contract, prices and open interest are falling while volumes are rising. prices and open interest are rising while volumes are falling. Market is attracting late buyers & early shorts; market is vulnerable to a sharp correction but likely that correction will be bought creating a buy point for uptrend.
Japan Futures (TOCOM)
The TOCOM active September contract, Prices, volumes are falling while open interest is rising. It is a good indication that a sharp rally against downtrend will develop creating a sell point for downtrend.
Shanghai Futures (SHFE)
The SHFE active August contract, prices are rising while volumes and while open interest are falling. Market is running out of traders willing to open or hold an open long/buy. Traders are liquidating both loosing short positions & closing winning long positions. A higher probability the market is set to retrace in price lower at some point forward.
Courtesy: Karvy Commtrade Ltd.
Rubber Declines as Toyota Extends Production Cuts After Quake
THURSDAY, APRIL 21, 2011
Rubber declined on concern that demand may weaken after Toyota Motor Corp., the world’s largest automaker, extended production cuts in some regions because of a parts shortage triggered by Japan’s record quake last month.
The September-delivery contract dropped as much as 3.4 percent to 411.3 yen per kilogram ($5,001 a metric ton) and ended at 412.3 yen on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange. Rubber surged yesterday on concern that supply from Thailand, the largest producer, may be disrupted by floods and rain, and an industry group has forecast that output this year may decline.
Toyota’s North American unit said yesterday that plants will remain shut on Mondays and Fridays and run at 50 percent on the three other weekdays until June 3. Toyota will also shut U.S. plants for a week from May 30 and in Canada from May 23.
“Toyota’s plan to cut production raised concerns that the car market this year may shrink,” Pornthip Wongjirattikarn, marketing manager at Future Agri Trade Co., said by phone from Bangkok. “This would slow demand for rubber.”
In China, the utilization rate at Toyota’s factories will generally be 50 percent of normal and may fall as low as 30 percent from April 21 to June 3, it said in a statement. Japan was rocked by its biggest recorded quake on March 11, triggering power cuts that shuttered factories.
A strengthening Japanese currency also hurt the rubber market, Ker Chung Yang, an analyst at Phillip Futures Pte, said from Singapore. Still, the low-production season, when output falls in top growers, helped to stem declines, he said.
The yen gained to 82.17 per dollar from 82.56 yesterday before a report forecast to show U.S. house prices fell for a fourth month, underscoring prospects the Federal Reserve will maintain monetary stimulus. A stronger Japanese currency boosts the costs of yen-based contracts for holders of other currencies.
China Imports
Rubber imports by China declined 4.6 percent to 470,000 tons in the first quarter compared with the year-earlier period, Beijing-based China Customs General Administration said today.
Rubber for September delivery in Shanghai fell 1.1 percent to close at 34,510 yuan ($5,294) a ton after rising as much as 1.1 percent earlier.
The physical price of Thai rubber was unchanged at 177.05 baht ($5.90) per kilogram, according to the Rubber Research Institute of Thailand. Chinese buyers continue to delay purchases, waiting for prices to drop, it said.
Thai rubber output may decline from last year if rains that caused floods persist, according to the Thai Rubber Association. Production may be 3.2 million tons this year, said Luckchai Kittipol, president of the group. That compares with last year’s 3.25 million tons and an earlier 2011 target of 3.49 million.
Unseasonal rains from the start of this year in Thailand caused floods in 10 southern provinces in March that may have damaged about 50,000 rai (19,641 acres) of rubber plantations, according to the Department of Disaster Prevention & Mitigation. Water levels have since receded, it said.
China’s Import of NR during March 2011
Rubber in Tokyo Declines After Rally as Strengthening Yen Reduces Appeal
THURSDAY, APRIL 21, 2011
Rubber dropped after jumping the most in almost a month as a strengthening Japanese currency cut the appeal of the yen-denominated contracts.
September-delivery rubber dropped as much as 1.3 percent to 420.5 yen per kilogram ($5,115 a metric ton), reversing a gain of 2.8 percent, before trading at 424 yen by 11:30 a.m. local time on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange. The contract yesterday jumped as much as 5.3 percent, the biggest gain since March 22, to 431.3 yen per.
“It’s a mix of factors today,” Ker Chung Yang, an analyst at Phillip Futures Pte, said by phone today from Singapore. “Stronger yen sends rubber weaker, while latex production is still low during wintering season.”
The yen gained to 82.25 per dollar from 82.56 yesterday before a report forecast to show U.S. house prices fell for a fourth month, underscoring prospects the Federal Reserve will maintain monetary stimulus even as central banks in Europe and Asia increase interest rates.
Farmers in Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia, the top three growers, reduce tapping during the low production season, so- called wintering from February to May when trees shed leaves and latex production drops, according to the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries.Thai output declines as much as 60 percent compared with peak levels, the group said.
Thai Floods
Unseasonal rains from the start of this year in Thailand caused floods in 10 southern provinces since March 23 and may damage about 50,000 rai (19,641 acres) of rubber plantations, according to the Department of Disaster Prevention & Mitigation. Water levels receded and the government is rebuilding infrastructure in inundated areas, it said.
Rubber imports by India, the second-largest consumer, added 0.4 percent to 177,482 tons in the year to March 31, the state- run Rubber Board said in an e-mail on April 19. Output in the same period climbed 3.7 percent to 861,950 tons.
Rubber for September delivery in Shanghai surged as much as 1.1 percent to 35,270 yuan ($5,409) a ton before trading little changed at 34,870 yuan at 10:16 a.m. local time.
The physical price of Thai rubber gained 1.3 percent to 177.05 baht ($5.90) a kilogram yesterday, according to the Rubber Research Institute of Thailand. The price will be updated around midday.
Tokyo rubber futures up four percent
THURSDAY, APRIL 21, 2011
Bangkok (april 21, 2011) : tokyo rubber futures finished 4 percent higher on wednesday, with sentiment boosted by firmness of other commodities, but profit-taking pulled prices down from intra-day highs, dealers said. the benchmarkrubber contract on the tokyo commodity exchange for september delivery rose 16.2 yen, or 4 percent, to settle at 425.9 yen ($5.157) per kg. that was down from intra-day highs of 5.2 percent.
the most-active shanghai rubber contract for september delivery also rose 1,005 yuan to settle at 34,875 yuan ($5,340.409) per tonne. "sentiment improved after prices broke above a key resistance of 410 yen and 425 yen respectively," one dealer said.
tocom rubber was expected to rise further on thursday after prices finished above a key resistance of 425 yen, while dealers said recovering oil prices should provide additional support. india's natural rubber production in march rose 7.4 percent on year to 54,400 tonnes, the state-run rubber board said in a statement on tuesday, as record high prices prompted farmers to increase tapping.
Toyota slashes N.A. production through May
THURSDAY, APRIL 21, 2011
DETROIT (April 20, 2011)—Toyota Motor Sales U.S.A. Inc. will slash the production schedule at its North American manufacturing plants through June 3 in the wake of continued parts shortages stemming from the March 11 earthquake in Japan.
Originally, Toyota had placed its North American plants on three-days-a-week schedules through April 25. For the rest of April and May, that schedule will continue, according to a statement released April 19 by the auto maker. When the plants are building vehicles, it will be at a 50 percent pace—meaning the plants are operating at 30 percent of total capacity each week because of the additional two days of idle time.
In addition, Toyota’s U.S. production will be suspended the week of May 30, following Memorial Day, while its Canadian operations will be suspended the week of May 23, in conjunction with Victoria Day.
Toyota said no layoffs are planned. The auto maker declined to speculate on plant slowdowns after June 3.
Thailand: Rubber proposal bounces back
THURSDAY, APRIL 21, 2011
The cabinet yesterday decided to continue the 800,000 rai para rubber plantation promotion scheme despite a request by the National Anti-Corruption Commission to delay the controversial project.
However, it still acknowledged the NACC's suggestion by ordering the Agriculture and Cooperatives Ministry to carry out the scheme, and in conjunction with the Budget Bureau, the Natural Resources and Environment Ministry and the National Economic and Social Development Board, to inspect areas where problems are reported.
The cabinet resolution was announced by Agriculture and Cooperatives Deputy Minister Supachai Phosu who urged further support for the project as "it did benefit farmers".
"And most cabinet members agreed with that."However his ministry was only allowed to push ahead with rubber growing already approved for the first year of the 2010-2012 third phase plan.
Whether to carry out rubber growing for the remaining years will be considered later by the new government, according to Mr Supachai.
Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban, a member of the National Rubber Policy Committee, said any problems in the project must be separated from government policy so as to improve people's lives.
"The government policy to create careers for people and boost their revenue must go on and any corruption that is uncovered will be acted on," he said.
The NACC wanted the government to delay the policy's third phase, which aims to plant rubber trees on 800,000 rai of land, because it found a range of problems especially among northeastern planters during the policy's second phase which was carried out between 2004 and 2006.
The second phase is targeted at 1 million rai of land in the North and the Northeast.
According to the NACC, many planters lacked sufficient knowledge concerning the care of rubber trees, many of which died or did not grow well.
The commission also found alleged irregularities involving the acquisition and delivery of rubber saplings to planters which led to a suspicion that some state officials might be involved in corrupt activities.
The NACC suggested the government carefully examine the problems in the second phase before going ahead with the next phase of the scheme.
Promotion of rubber plantations without enough attention to location, farmers' capability and possible corruption could lead to a waste of funds and "cause serious damage to the state", the NACC said.
The commission's concern was also echoed by the National Economic and Social Development Board which also wanted the Agriculture and Cooperatives Ministry to delay the third phase of the scheme.
Though the third phase was agreed in principle by the cabinet and a number of farmers have joined it, the government was urged to call a temporary halt and carefully study flaws in the second phase.
It is crucial for the government to carry out the scheme transparently to gain trust from all state agencies, the board said.
India: Futures lift physical rubber
THURSDAY, APRIL 21, 2011
KOTTAYAM, APRIL 20:
Physical rubber prices improved on Wednesday. The market was reacting to the moderate recovery in domestic and international futures. But most of the traders were reluctant to increase their commitments before the long weekend holidays falling along with Easter. Prices recovered partially on fresh buying and short-covering at lower levels.
Sheet rubber improved to Rs 240 (Rs 235.50) a kg according to traders. The grade concluded at Rs 239 (Rs 236) a kg both at Kottayam and Kochi, as quoted by the Rubber Board.
RSS-4 rebounded with the May series rising to Rs 244.99 (Rs 237.23), June to Rs 249 (Rs 241.43), July to Rs 249.99 (Rs 242.13), August to Rs 242.90 (Rs 235.83) and September to Rs 232.65 (Rs 229.21) a kg on the National Multi-Commodity Exchange.
RSS-3 (spot) closed firm at Rs 263.02 (Rs 257.26) a kg at Bangkok. The April futures for the grade recovered to ¥456 (Rs 244.57) from ¥435 a kg during the day session and then to ¥458 (Rs 245.68) in the night session on Tokyo Commodity Exchange.
Spot rates (Rs/kg): RSS-4: 240 (235.50); RSS-5: 236 (233); Ungraded: 232 (228); ISNR 20: 233 (231); and latex 60 per cent: 147 (146).
THURSDAY, APRIL 21, 2011
NMCE rubber futures reversed the trend on fresh buying at lower level on Wednesday. TOCOM futures market also traded up on short covering and September futures settled at ¥425.20 per Kg.
Domestic spot market also witnessed recovery after a continuous fall which supported the futures prices to trade higher. Therefore, taking cues from domestic spot and international market futures ended the day on higher note.
The rubbers futures are projected to continue the recovery on lower level buying on Thursday. However, TOCOM September futures are trading slightly down at ¥413.00 per Kg. on fresh selling on gains.
Concern of demand may decline from US as they have cut government spending which is likely to weigh on prices. Thus, in Indian market overall trend is likely to be very volatile.
Factors to Watch For
According to Bloomberg sources, China’s is likely to increase the interest rate for 5th time on rising concern of inflation
Decision of reduction in government spending by Us is also pressurizing the prices as demand for commodity used in auto industry is likely to decline
According to Department of Disaster Prevention & Mitigation, around 19,641 acres of rubber plantations have been damaged in Thailand due to heavy flood
According to the Rubber Research Institute of Thailand, The physical price of Thai rubber dropped to 177.3 baht ($5.89) a kilogram Tuesday
DERIVATIVE ANALYSIS
Indian Futures (NMCE)
The NMCE May contract, prices and open interest are falling while volumes are rising. prices and open interest are rising while volumes are falling. Market is attracting late buyers & early shorts; market is vulnerable to a sharp correction but likely that correction will be bought creating a buy point for uptrend.
Japan Futures (TOCOM)
The TOCOM active September contract, Prices, volumes are falling while open interest is rising. It is a good indication that a sharp rally against downtrend will develop creating a sell point for downtrend.
Shanghai Futures (SHFE)
The SHFE active August contract, prices are rising while volumes and while open interest are falling. Market is running out of traders willing to open or hold an open long/buy. Traders are liquidating both loosing short positions & closing winning long positions. A higher probability the market is set to retrace in price lower at some point forward.
Courtesy: Karvy Commtrade Ltd.
Rubber Declines as Toyota Extends Production Cuts After Quake
THURSDAY, APRIL 21, 2011
Rubber declined on concern that demand may weaken after Toyota Motor Corp., the world’s largest automaker, extended production cuts in some regions because of a parts shortage triggered by Japan’s record quake last month.
The September-delivery contract dropped as much as 3.4 percent to 411.3 yen per kilogram ($5,001 a metric ton) and ended at 412.3 yen on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange. Rubber surged yesterday on concern that supply from Thailand, the largest producer, may be disrupted by floods and rain, and an industry group has forecast that output this year may decline.
Toyota’s North American unit said yesterday that plants will remain shut on Mondays and Fridays and run at 50 percent on the three other weekdays until June 3. Toyota will also shut U.S. plants for a week from May 30 and in Canada from May 23.
“Toyota’s plan to cut production raised concerns that the car market this year may shrink,” Pornthip Wongjirattikarn, marketing manager at Future Agri Trade Co., said by phone from Bangkok. “This would slow demand for rubber.”
In China, the utilization rate at Toyota’s factories will generally be 50 percent of normal and may fall as low as 30 percent from April 21 to June 3, it said in a statement. Japan was rocked by its biggest recorded quake on March 11, triggering power cuts that shuttered factories.
A strengthening Japanese currency also hurt the rubber market, Ker Chung Yang, an analyst at Phillip Futures Pte, said from Singapore. Still, the low-production season, when output falls in top growers, helped to stem declines, he said.
The yen gained to 82.17 per dollar from 82.56 yesterday before a report forecast to show U.S. house prices fell for a fourth month, underscoring prospects the Federal Reserve will maintain monetary stimulus. A stronger Japanese currency boosts the costs of yen-based contracts for holders of other currencies.
China Imports
Rubber imports by China declined 4.6 percent to 470,000 tons in the first quarter compared with the year-earlier period, Beijing-based China Customs General Administration said today.
Rubber for September delivery in Shanghai fell 1.1 percent to close at 34,510 yuan ($5,294) a ton after rising as much as 1.1 percent earlier.
The physical price of Thai rubber was unchanged at 177.05 baht ($5.90) per kilogram, according to the Rubber Research Institute of Thailand. Chinese buyers continue to delay purchases, waiting for prices to drop, it said.
Thai rubber output may decline from last year if rains that caused floods persist, according to the Thai Rubber Association. Production may be 3.2 million tons this year, said Luckchai Kittipol, president of the group. That compares with last year’s 3.25 million tons and an earlier 2011 target of 3.49 million.
Unseasonal rains from the start of this year in Thailand caused floods in 10 southern provinces in March that may have damaged about 50,000 rai (19,641 acres) of rubber plantations, according to the Department of Disaster Prevention & Mitigation. Water levels have since receded, it said.
China’s Import of NR during March 2011
Rubber in Tokyo Declines After Rally as Strengthening Yen Reduces Appeal
THURSDAY, APRIL 21, 2011
Rubber dropped after jumping the most in almost a month as a strengthening Japanese currency cut the appeal of the yen-denominated contracts.
September-delivery rubber dropped as much as 1.3 percent to 420.5 yen per kilogram ($5,115 a metric ton), reversing a gain of 2.8 percent, before trading at 424 yen by 11:30 a.m. local time on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange. The contract yesterday jumped as much as 5.3 percent, the biggest gain since March 22, to 431.3 yen per.
“It’s a mix of factors today,” Ker Chung Yang, an analyst at Phillip Futures Pte, said by phone today from Singapore. “Stronger yen sends rubber weaker, while latex production is still low during wintering season.”
The yen gained to 82.25 per dollar from 82.56 yesterday before a report forecast to show U.S. house prices fell for a fourth month, underscoring prospects the Federal Reserve will maintain monetary stimulus even as central banks in Europe and Asia increase interest rates.
Farmers in Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia, the top three growers, reduce tapping during the low production season, so- called wintering from February to May when trees shed leaves and latex production drops, according to the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries.Thai output declines as much as 60 percent compared with peak levels, the group said.
Thai Floods
Unseasonal rains from the start of this year in Thailand caused floods in 10 southern provinces since March 23 and may damage about 50,000 rai (19,641 acres) of rubber plantations, according to the Department of Disaster Prevention & Mitigation. Water levels receded and the government is rebuilding infrastructure in inundated areas, it said.
Rubber imports by India, the second-largest consumer, added 0.4 percent to 177,482 tons in the year to March 31, the state- run Rubber Board said in an e-mail on April 19. Output in the same period climbed 3.7 percent to 861,950 tons.
Rubber for September delivery in Shanghai surged as much as 1.1 percent to 35,270 yuan ($5,409) a ton before trading little changed at 34,870 yuan at 10:16 a.m. local time.
The physical price of Thai rubber gained 1.3 percent to 177.05 baht ($5.90) a kilogram yesterday, according to the Rubber Research Institute of Thailand. The price will be updated around midday.
Tokyo rubber futures up four percent
THURSDAY, APRIL 21, 2011
Bangkok (april 21, 2011) : tokyo rubber futures finished 4 percent higher on wednesday, with sentiment boosted by firmness of other commodities, but profit-taking pulled prices down from intra-day highs, dealers said. the benchmarkrubber contract on the tokyo commodity exchange for september delivery rose 16.2 yen, or 4 percent, to settle at 425.9 yen ($5.157) per kg. that was down from intra-day highs of 5.2 percent.
the most-active shanghai rubber contract for september delivery also rose 1,005 yuan to settle at 34,875 yuan ($5,340.409) per tonne. "sentiment improved after prices broke above a key resistance of 410 yen and 425 yen respectively," one dealer said.
tocom rubber was expected to rise further on thursday after prices finished above a key resistance of 425 yen, while dealers said recovering oil prices should provide additional support. india's natural rubber production in march rose 7.4 percent on year to 54,400 tonnes, the state-run rubber board said in a statement on tuesday, as record high prices prompted farmers to increase tapping.
Toyota slashes N.A. production through May
THURSDAY, APRIL 21, 2011
DETROIT (April 20, 2011)—Toyota Motor Sales U.S.A. Inc. will slash the production schedule at its North American manufacturing plants through June 3 in the wake of continued parts shortages stemming from the March 11 earthquake in Japan.
Originally, Toyota had placed its North American plants on three-days-a-week schedules through April 25. For the rest of April and May, that schedule will continue, according to a statement released April 19 by the auto maker. When the plants are building vehicles, it will be at a 50 percent pace—meaning the plants are operating at 30 percent of total capacity each week because of the additional two days of idle time.
In addition, Toyota’s U.S. production will be suspended the week of May 30, following Memorial Day, while its Canadian operations will be suspended the week of May 23, in conjunction with Victoria Day.
Toyota said no layoffs are planned. The auto maker declined to speculate on plant slowdowns after June 3.
Thailand: Rubber proposal bounces back
THURSDAY, APRIL 21, 2011
The cabinet yesterday decided to continue the 800,000 rai para rubber plantation promotion scheme despite a request by the National Anti-Corruption Commission to delay the controversial project.
However, it still acknowledged the NACC's suggestion by ordering the Agriculture and Cooperatives Ministry to carry out the scheme, and in conjunction with the Budget Bureau, the Natural Resources and Environment Ministry and the National Economic and Social Development Board, to inspect areas where problems are reported.
The cabinet resolution was announced by Agriculture and Cooperatives Deputy Minister Supachai Phosu who urged further support for the project as "it did benefit farmers".
"And most cabinet members agreed with that."However his ministry was only allowed to push ahead with rubber growing already approved for the first year of the 2010-2012 third phase plan.
Whether to carry out rubber growing for the remaining years will be considered later by the new government, according to Mr Supachai.
Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban, a member of the National Rubber Policy Committee, said any problems in the project must be separated from government policy so as to improve people's lives.
"The government policy to create careers for people and boost their revenue must go on and any corruption that is uncovered will be acted on," he said.
The NACC wanted the government to delay the policy's third phase, which aims to plant rubber trees on 800,000 rai of land, because it found a range of problems especially among northeastern planters during the policy's second phase which was carried out between 2004 and 2006.
The second phase is targeted at 1 million rai of land in the North and the Northeast.
According to the NACC, many planters lacked sufficient knowledge concerning the care of rubber trees, many of which died or did not grow well.
The commission also found alleged irregularities involving the acquisition and delivery of rubber saplings to planters which led to a suspicion that some state officials might be involved in corrupt activities.
The NACC suggested the government carefully examine the problems in the second phase before going ahead with the next phase of the scheme.
Promotion of rubber plantations without enough attention to location, farmers' capability and possible corruption could lead to a waste of funds and "cause serious damage to the state", the NACC said.
The commission's concern was also echoed by the National Economic and Social Development Board which also wanted the Agriculture and Cooperatives Ministry to delay the third phase of the scheme.
Though the third phase was agreed in principle by the cabinet and a number of farmers have joined it, the government was urged to call a temporary halt and carefully study flaws in the second phase.
It is crucial for the government to carry out the scheme transparently to gain trust from all state agencies, the board said.
India: Futures lift physical rubber
THURSDAY, APRIL 21, 2011
KOTTAYAM, APRIL 20:
Physical rubber prices improved on Wednesday. The market was reacting to the moderate recovery in domestic and international futures. But most of the traders were reluctant to increase their commitments before the long weekend holidays falling along with Easter. Prices recovered partially on fresh buying and short-covering at lower levels.
Sheet rubber improved to Rs 240 (Rs 235.50) a kg according to traders. The grade concluded at Rs 239 (Rs 236) a kg both at Kottayam and Kochi, as quoted by the Rubber Board.
RSS-4 rebounded with the May series rising to Rs 244.99 (Rs 237.23), June to Rs 249 (Rs 241.43), July to Rs 249.99 (Rs 242.13), August to Rs 242.90 (Rs 235.83) and September to Rs 232.65 (Rs 229.21) a kg on the National Multi-Commodity Exchange.
RSS-3 (spot) closed firm at Rs 263.02 (Rs 257.26) a kg at Bangkok. The April futures for the grade recovered to ¥456 (Rs 244.57) from ¥435 a kg during the day session and then to ¥458 (Rs 245.68) in the night session on Tokyo Commodity Exchange.
Spot rates (Rs/kg): RSS-4: 240 (235.50); RSS-5: 236 (233); Ungraded: 232 (228); ISNR 20: 233 (231); and latex 60 per cent: 147 (146).
Tokyo Futures Rebound As Other Commodities Steady
Tokyo Futures Rebound As Other Commodities Steady
WEDNESDAY, APRIL 20, 2011
Key Tokyo rubber futures rebounded on Wednesday (Apr 20), snapping a six-day drop, as sentiment improved with other commodities markets stabilising from a sharp drop the day before on wariness over the recent rapid pace of gains.
FUNDAMENTALS
The key Tokyo Commodity Exchange rubber contract for September delivery rose 5.8 yen or 1.4 percent to 415.5 yen per kg as of 0018 GMT.
It fell 5 percent to a three-week low on Tuesday (Apr 19) after Standard & Poor's warning that it may cut the United States' AAA credit rating triggered heavy stop-loss selling while weaker oil added to the downward pressure.
The most-active Shanghai rubber contract for September delivery fell 1,090 yuan to settle at 33,870 yuan ($5,187.868) per tonne on Tuesday (Apr 19).
U.S. oil prices were steady in early trade on Wednesday after rising the day before in volatile trade as a weaker dollar and stronger equities lifted prices and offset concerns over sovereign debt and uncertain demand prospects.
The euro and commodity currencies like the Australian dollar rose early in Asia on Wednesday, having staged a rebound as investors bought them again after a mild shake-out of stretched long positions at the start of the week.
(Reuters, April 20, 2011)
Natural rubber up on global cues
WEDNESDAY, APRIL 20, 2011
NEW DELHI, APR 20:
Natural rubber prices on Wednesday rose by Rs 3 to Rs 239 a kg in the domestic spot markets on back of rise in prices in global futures and spot markets.
The prices of natural rubber yesterday were ruling at Rs 236 a kg in the domestic markets, according to the Rubber Board.
“Rubber prices internationally are facing speculation which is responsible for the rise in prices in both the futures and spot markets,” Indian Rubber Dealers Federation President, Mr George Valy, told PTI.
Futures and spot markets in India are following the trends in the global markets, he added.
The rate of natural rubber in the international physical market at Bangkok today rose by Rs 5.76 to Rs 263.02, compared to Rs 257.26 a kg yesterday, Rubber Board data said.
Similarly, TOCOM, rubber futures prices for May delivery were ruling at 457.8 yen a kg (Rs 245.30/kg), up 3.4 yen (Rs 1.82/kg) from their last trading price.
Rubber becomes hot, plantations across the globe zooms
WEDNESDAY, APRIL 20, 2011
COCHIN (Commodity Online): Rubber farmers across the world are doing what they can do the most from their farm – over tap the rubber trees.
They do it because the prices are at its pinnacle and a correction could be round the corner. Output has increased because of this milking and Indonesia alone will be producing an estimated 2.972 million tonnes of rubber this year as against 2.736 million tonnes last year. Farmers in the world’s second largest Rubber producing region is expecting a correction any time but according to Indonesian Rubber Association (Gapkindo) Rubber prices will average $4.5 per kg this year even after a slight correction.
In the meanwhile, the Tokyo Rubber futures fell to a two week low as September contract fell 10.1 yen to settle at 425.0 yen per kg.
Rubber had struck $6 in the Indonesian market but then dropped on Middle East worries and the Japan Earthquake. Additionally most automakers in Japan are producing vehicles at half their production capacity which has put pressure on the stocks.
Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia, the three top rubber producing nations had made an effort to jack up the prices on the worrying production hit in Japan.
According to International Rubber Study Group, demand for rubber across the globe, both natural and synthetic, is expected to rise to 26.1 million tonnes in 2011 from 24.4 million tonnes in 2010.
In the meanwhile many countries are now plunging into rubber production as they see value in it. Colombia has increased its rubber production ten times in the past decade. From merely countable acres, the estimated rubber production is now around 25,000 acres. Production in 2010 was around 3200 tons and this is likely to increase ten fold in another 10 years.
Rubber production figures swings, prices fluctuate
WEDNESDAY, APRIL 20, 2011
COCHIN (Commodity Online) : NMCE Rubber prices are in downtrend on the global sentiments despite a production decline data and a looming supply-demand deficit of Rubber.
Thailand is facing flood fury and plantations are facing severe damage. But according to a report by Reuters quoting Luckchai Kittipol, president of the Thai Rubber Association, the world's biggest producer can still produce 3.46 million tonnes this year which is almost 1 per cent down from the previous year.
Middle East crisis and the Japan quake has already rattled the Rubber price momentum putting it in a swing with a major traders unable to put a fixed position. During the quake, many traders were unable to even get out of their positions because there were not enough buyers in the electronic platform as well as the spot markets.
Prices of Rubber has been varying in almost all the parts and it could average this year around 4.5$ per kilogram. Many believe this should ideally go above $5 only after which the farmers can get their due.
But the Rubber consumers and buyers are not in favor of such tactics and say their cost is increasing manifold and is unable to pass it on to the end users.
India: Rubber output increases 7.4% in March
WEDNESDAY, APRIL 20, 2011
Mumbai: India’s natural rubber production in March rose 7.4% on year to 54,400 tonne, the state-run Rubber Board said in a statement on Tuesday, as record high prices prompted farmers to increase tapping.
The south Asian country’s production during April 2010 to March 2011 stood at 8,61,950 tonne, up 3.7% on year, it said.
“Weather was conducive for tapping in March. In April also production is likely to be on higher side. We got rainfall in the past few days. It should boost tapping in coming days,” said Ibrahim Jalal, treasurer, Indian Rubber Dealers Federation (IRDF).
The world’s fourth biggest producer’s consumption rose by 3.6% to 81,500 tonne in March from 78,650 tonne in the year-ago period, the Rubber Board said.
Consumption during April-March stood at 9,49,205 tonne, up 2% on year, as tyre makers stepped up purchases to cater to ballooning tyre demand from the auto sector.
Imports halved in March to 6,200 tonne, while during April-March they stood at 1,77,482 tonne, largely steady compared to 1,76,756 tonne a year ago.
The benchmark May rubber contract on India’s National Multi-Commodity Exchange (NMCE) was trading 1.3% lower at R23,700 per 100 kg at 1004 GMT on Tuesday.
WEDNESDAY, APRIL 20, 2011
Key Tokyo rubber futures rebounded on Wednesday (Apr 20), snapping a six-day drop, as sentiment improved with other commodities markets stabilising from a sharp drop the day before on wariness over the recent rapid pace of gains.
FUNDAMENTALS
The key Tokyo Commodity Exchange rubber contract for September delivery rose 5.8 yen or 1.4 percent to 415.5 yen per kg as of 0018 GMT.
It fell 5 percent to a three-week low on Tuesday (Apr 19) after Standard & Poor's warning that it may cut the United States' AAA credit rating triggered heavy stop-loss selling while weaker oil added to the downward pressure.
The most-active Shanghai rubber contract for September delivery fell 1,090 yuan to settle at 33,870 yuan ($5,187.868) per tonne on Tuesday (Apr 19).
U.S. oil prices were steady in early trade on Wednesday after rising the day before in volatile trade as a weaker dollar and stronger equities lifted prices and offset concerns over sovereign debt and uncertain demand prospects.
The euro and commodity currencies like the Australian dollar rose early in Asia on Wednesday, having staged a rebound as investors bought them again after a mild shake-out of stretched long positions at the start of the week.
(Reuters, April 20, 2011)
Natural rubber up on global cues
WEDNESDAY, APRIL 20, 2011
NEW DELHI, APR 20:
Natural rubber prices on Wednesday rose by Rs 3 to Rs 239 a kg in the domestic spot markets on back of rise in prices in global futures and spot markets.
The prices of natural rubber yesterday were ruling at Rs 236 a kg in the domestic markets, according to the Rubber Board.
“Rubber prices internationally are facing speculation which is responsible for the rise in prices in both the futures and spot markets,” Indian Rubber Dealers Federation President, Mr George Valy, told PTI.
Futures and spot markets in India are following the trends in the global markets, he added.
The rate of natural rubber in the international physical market at Bangkok today rose by Rs 5.76 to Rs 263.02, compared to Rs 257.26 a kg yesterday, Rubber Board data said.
Similarly, TOCOM, rubber futures prices for May delivery were ruling at 457.8 yen a kg (Rs 245.30/kg), up 3.4 yen (Rs 1.82/kg) from their last trading price.
Rubber becomes hot, plantations across the globe zooms
WEDNESDAY, APRIL 20, 2011
COCHIN (Commodity Online): Rubber farmers across the world are doing what they can do the most from their farm – over tap the rubber trees.
They do it because the prices are at its pinnacle and a correction could be round the corner. Output has increased because of this milking and Indonesia alone will be producing an estimated 2.972 million tonnes of rubber this year as against 2.736 million tonnes last year. Farmers in the world’s second largest Rubber producing region is expecting a correction any time but according to Indonesian Rubber Association (Gapkindo) Rubber prices will average $4.5 per kg this year even after a slight correction.
In the meanwhile, the Tokyo Rubber futures fell to a two week low as September contract fell 10.1 yen to settle at 425.0 yen per kg.
Rubber had struck $6 in the Indonesian market but then dropped on Middle East worries and the Japan Earthquake. Additionally most automakers in Japan are producing vehicles at half their production capacity which has put pressure on the stocks.
Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia, the three top rubber producing nations had made an effort to jack up the prices on the worrying production hit in Japan.
According to International Rubber Study Group, demand for rubber across the globe, both natural and synthetic, is expected to rise to 26.1 million tonnes in 2011 from 24.4 million tonnes in 2010.
In the meanwhile many countries are now plunging into rubber production as they see value in it. Colombia has increased its rubber production ten times in the past decade. From merely countable acres, the estimated rubber production is now around 25,000 acres. Production in 2010 was around 3200 tons and this is likely to increase ten fold in another 10 years.
Rubber production figures swings, prices fluctuate
WEDNESDAY, APRIL 20, 2011
COCHIN (Commodity Online) : NMCE Rubber prices are in downtrend on the global sentiments despite a production decline data and a looming supply-demand deficit of Rubber.
Thailand is facing flood fury and plantations are facing severe damage. But according to a report by Reuters quoting Luckchai Kittipol, president of the Thai Rubber Association, the world's biggest producer can still produce 3.46 million tonnes this year which is almost 1 per cent down from the previous year.
Middle East crisis and the Japan quake has already rattled the Rubber price momentum putting it in a swing with a major traders unable to put a fixed position. During the quake, many traders were unable to even get out of their positions because there were not enough buyers in the electronic platform as well as the spot markets.
Prices of Rubber has been varying in almost all the parts and it could average this year around 4.5$ per kilogram. Many believe this should ideally go above $5 only after which the farmers can get their due.
But the Rubber consumers and buyers are not in favor of such tactics and say their cost is increasing manifold and is unable to pass it on to the end users.
India: Rubber output increases 7.4% in March
WEDNESDAY, APRIL 20, 2011
Mumbai: India’s natural rubber production in March rose 7.4% on year to 54,400 tonne, the state-run Rubber Board said in a statement on Tuesday, as record high prices prompted farmers to increase tapping.
The south Asian country’s production during April 2010 to March 2011 stood at 8,61,950 tonne, up 3.7% on year, it said.
“Weather was conducive for tapping in March. In April also production is likely to be on higher side. We got rainfall in the past few days. It should boost tapping in coming days,” said Ibrahim Jalal, treasurer, Indian Rubber Dealers Federation (IRDF).
The world’s fourth biggest producer’s consumption rose by 3.6% to 81,500 tonne in March from 78,650 tonne in the year-ago period, the Rubber Board said.
Consumption during April-March stood at 9,49,205 tonne, up 2% on year, as tyre makers stepped up purchases to cater to ballooning tyre demand from the auto sector.
Imports halved in March to 6,200 tonne, while during April-March they stood at 1,77,482 tonne, largely steady compared to 1,76,756 tonne a year ago.
The benchmark May rubber contract on India’s National Multi-Commodity Exchange (NMCE) was trading 1.3% lower at R23,700 per 100 kg at 1004 GMT on Tuesday.
Tuesday, April 19, 2011
Floods Cut 1 Percent Of Thai 2011 Rubber Output
Floods Cut 1 Percent Of Thai 2011 Rubber Output
TUESDAY, APRIL 19, 2011
Thailand, the world's biggest rubber producer and exporter, should produce 3.46 million tonnes of rubber this year, down one percent from a January forecast due to heavy floods, the chief of an industry body said on Tuesday (Apr 19).
"We still believe we can produce around 3.46 million tonnes this year, or around 1 percent drop from the previous forecast," Luckchai Kittipol, president of the Thai Rubber Association, told Reuters, referring to a previous forecast of 3.49 million tonnes made in January.
Heavy rains and severe floods in late March battered Thailand's southern rubber-producing region, damaging plantations. Destroyed rubber trees are to be replanted soon, but newly planted trees need up to seven years to mature and start producing latex.
Luckchai said supplies from a 2004 planting expansion in Thailand's northeast would offset some lost production. Farmers in several areas who had stopped tapping latex in late February have also resumed tapping as the dry season ends, he added.
But supplies won't rise immediately. Rubber trees need weeks to rejuvenate and farmers need at least two more weeks to dry and smoke rubber so it can be sold as benchmark RSS-3 grade.
"Supply should rise gradually and return to normal by June at best," Luckchai said. Thailand's monthly production capacity is 280,000-300,000 tonnes of rubber sheet.
PRICES SEEN SUPPORTED
Prices of physical Thai RSS-3 grade rubber have dropped 8.6 percent since striking a record above $6 per kg in February, as economic concerns sparked by the Middle East unrest and worries about the impact of the March 11 earthquake in Japan countered tight supply.
News such as Toyota Motor Corp's decision to build cars at half the rate of its original plans in Japan at least until June 3, which would cost the world's top automaker another 120,000 vehicles in lost production, continued to dampen rubber prices.
Top producers Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia threatened to take action to prop up prices in March, when tyre grades plunged.
But Luckchai expects prices to stay above $5 per kg. "With the prospect of strong demand not only from China and India, but also in Europe and Japan, this year the average price of benchmark Thai RSS-3 should not be below $5.0 per kg," he said.
That is well below a Feb.14 record high of $6.40 per kg but above last year's average price of $3.60 per kg. On Tuesday (Apr 19), Thai RSS-3 grade rubber traded at $5.85 per kg.
Global demand for rubber, both natural and synthetic, is forecast to rise to 26.1 million tonnes in 2011 from 24.4 million tonnes in 2010, the International Rubber Study Group said in March.
Dealers say this was in part due to a recovery in the automotive sector, though that had not factored in the plight of the Japanese automakers. The U.S. auto industry snapped a four-year sales decline in 2010, including three consecutive months of sales above the 12 million-unit annual rate.
(Reuters, April 19, 2011)
NMCE rubber settles down on selling pressure
TUESDAY, APRIL 19, 2011
NMCE rubber futures continued the bearish trend on selling pressure on Monday. TOCOM futures market also traded down on active selling and September futures settled at ¥422.00 per Kg. Fall in oil prices also added to the downside.
Domestic spot market also continued the fall on sluggish demand. Therefore, taking cues from domestic spot and international market futures ended the day on negative note.
The rubbers futures are projected to continue the bearish trend on strong selling interest on Tuesday. TOCOM September futures are also trading down at ¥409.30 per Kg. on active selling.
China may increase its interest rate for 5th time in coming month on rising inflation concern which might pressurize the prices in near term.
Factors to Watch For
Thai market will be closed from April 13 to 15th due to Thai New year. Therefore supply might remain tight in world rubber market
According to Bloomberg sources, China’s natural-rubber imports were 210,000 tons in March, compared with 110,000 tons in February and 190,000 tons in March2010
According to Department of Disaster Prevention & Mitigation, around 19,641 acres of rubber plantations have been damaged in Thailand due to heavy flood
According to the Rubber Research Institute of Thailand, The physical price of Thai rubber dropped to 177.3 baht ($5.89) a kilogram yesterday after the country’s New-Year holidays from 184.8 baht on April 12
As per deputy head of the China Rubber Industry Association, Natural-rubber demand in China, the biggest consumer, will rise 8% this year. Consumption will be 3.24 million metric tons, while tire output will climb 7.9 percent to an all-time high of 453 million units
DERIVATIVE ANALYSIS
Indian Futures (NMCE)
The NMCE May contract, prices and open interest are falling while volumes are rising. Market is running out of traders willing to open or hold a Buy/ Long. Traders are liquidating both loosing long positions & closing winning short positions. A higher probability the market is set to retrace in price lower at some point forward.
Japan Futures (TOCOM)
The TOCOM active September contract, prices and volumes are falling while open interest is rising. It is a good indication that a sharp rally against downtrend will develop creating a sell point for downtrend.
Shanghai Futures (SHFE)
The SHFE active August contract, prices and volumes are falling while open interest is rising. It is a good indication that a sharp rally against downtrend will develop creating a sell point for downtrend.
Courtesy: Karvy Commtrade Ltd.
India rubber output rises 3.7% to 8,61,950 tons
TUESDAY, APRIL 19, 2011
KOTTAYAM, INDIA (Commodity Online): India's natural rubber production has risen 3.7% in 2010-11 to 8,61,950 tons, according to Rubber Board. Revealing the data at the 165th Annual meeting of the Board here, Sheela Thomas, Rubber Board Chairman said that domestic production stood at 8,31,400 tons and anticipated production for 2010-11 was 9,02,000 tonnes. The anticipated consumption in 2010-11 was 9,77,000 tons.
Domestic consumption has increased by 2 per cent in 2010-11. During 2010-11, growth in tyre production in the automotive sector grew by 23 per cent. Export of tyres also increased by 20 per cent. However, truck and bus tyre exports declined by five per cent. During 2010-11 fiscal, exports stood at 28,424 tonnes compared with 25,090 tonnes in the previous fiscal. Imports accounted for 1,77,482 tonnes, 73 per cent of which was through duty free channels.
Rubber Board does not foresee any shortage for the commodity as the opening stock of rubber in 2011-12 was relatively high at 2,77,095 tonnes against 2,11,290 tonnes in 2010-11. Meanwhile, the Automotive Tyre Manufacturers Association (ATMA) has urged the rubber board to take steps to avoid delays in mandatory inspection of imported rubber which is affecting the raw material availability for manufacturers. The onus of ensuring quality of imported rubber should lie with the manufacturers and not the government, ATMA said,.
Key Tokyo rubber futures have fallen 2.3 percent in early trade on Tuesday, tracking losses in Shanghai and Singapore after Standard & Poor's warned it may cut the United States credit rating, sending oil prices plunging and lifting the yen. The key Tokyo Commodity Exchange rubber contract for September delivery was down 9.9 yen at 415.1 yen per kg as of 0021 GMT. The most-active Shanghai rubber contract for September delivery ended 335 yuan lower to finish at 34,960 yuan($5,351.677) per tonnes on Monday, Reuters reported.
At India's National Multi-Commodity Exchange, May rubber futures opened weaker at 23,800 per 100 kg tracking global trends and is currently trading at Rs 23,535 as against previous close of Rs 24,019.
India: Rubber output likely to touch 9.02-lakh t in 2011-12
TUESDAY, APRIL 19, 2011
KOTTAYAM, APRIL 19:
Natural rubber production in the country rose 3.7 per cent during 2010-11 against the previous year.
Domestic production stood at 8,31,400 tonnes in 2009-10 and 8,61,950 tonnes in 2010-11, the Rubber Board Chairperson, Ms Sheela Thomas, said at the 165th meeting of the Board here on Monday.
She said the anticipated production for 2011-12 was 9,02,000 tonnes. Domestic consumption also increased by 2 per cent in 2010-11.
During 2010-11, growth in tyre production in the automotive sector grew by 23 per cent. Export of tyres also increased by 20 per cent. However, truck and bus tyre exports declined by five per cent.
Ms Sheela said the projected rubber consumption in 2011-12 was 9,77,000 tonnes.
During 2010-11 fiscal, exports stood at 28,424 tonnes compared with 25,090 tonnes in the previous fiscal. Imports accounted for 1,77,482 tonnes, 73 per cent of which was through duty free channels.
The chairperson said there would not be any shortage as the opening stock of rubber in 2011-12 was relatively high at 2,77,095 tonnes against 2,11,290 tonnes in 2010-11.
According to the International Rubber Study Group report, global rubber production-consumption balance in 2010 and 2011 showed deficits of 380,000 tonnes and 234,000 tonnes, respectively.
Tokyo Futures Fall, Oil Plunges On S&P U.S. Warning
TUESDAY, APRIL 19, 2011
Key Tokyo rubber futures fell 2.3 percent in early trade on Tuesday (Apr 19), tracking losses in Shanghai and Singapore after Standard & Poor's warned it may cut the United States credit rating, sending oil prices plunging and lifting the yen.
FUNDAMENTALS
The key Tokyo Commodity Exchange rubber contract for September delivery was down 9.9 yen at 415.1 yen per kg as of 0021 GMT.
The most-active Shanghai rubber contract for September delivery ended 335 yuan lower to finish at 34,960 yuan($5,351.677) per tonnes on Monday (Apr 18).
Oil fell sharply on Monday after ratings agency S&P revised lower its U.S. credit outlook to negative and OPEC ministers said high crude prices could place a major strain on consumer countries' economies.
The euro nursed heavy losses early in Asia on Tuesday (Apr 19) while the yen gained across the board as worries about sovereign debt problems in Europe and the United States prompted investors to unwind carry trades.
(Reuters, April 19, 2011)
Tokyo rubber futures at two-week low
TUESDAY, APRIL 19, 2011
Bangkok (april 19, 2011) : tokyo rubber futures fell to a two-week low on monday, hurt by weaker oil prices and a perception prices were overbought, but limited supply in producing countries should offer support, dealers said. the benchmark rubber contract on the tokyo commodity exchange for september delivery fell 10.1 yen to settle at 425.0 yen ($5.112) per kg. it fell as much as 4.2 percent to 416.7 yen per kg, the lowest since march 30.
the most-active shanghai rubber contract for september delivery also ended 335 yuan lower to finish at 34,960 yuan($5,351.677) per tonnes. "there could be a short-term correction as the market was a bit overbought and weaker oil was an additional negative factor. however, prices could still be supported by tight supply in producing countries," one dealer said. rubber prices will average $4.5 per kg this year as producers try to take advantage of relatively high prices, the indonesian rubber association (gapkindo) said on friday, above last year's average.
Rubber To Average $4.5/Kg In 2011, Above Last Year by GAPKINDO
TUESDAY, APRIL 19, 2011
Rubber prices will average $4.5 per kg this year as producers try to take advantage of relatively high prices, the Indonesian Rubber Association (Gapkindo) said on Friday (Apr 15), above last year's average.
Indonesia, the world's second-largest rubber producer, will produce an estimated 2.972 million tonnes of rubber this year, versus 2.736 million tonnes last year, Asril Sutan Amir, chairman at Gapkindo told a news conference.
"High rubber price has encouraged farmers to over tap the rubber trees," Amir said. "It is still relatively high."
Prices of physical Indonesian SIR20 rubber have dropped more than a third since striking a record above $6 per kg in February, as economic concerns sparked by the Middle East unrest and worries about the impact of the March 11 earthquake in Japan countered tight supply.
News such as Toyota Motor Corp's decision to build cars at half the rate of its original plans in Japan at least until June 3, which would cost the world's top automaker another 120,000 vehicles in lost production, continued to dampen rubber prices.
Top producers Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia threatened to take action to prop up prices in March, when tyre grades plunged.
But this year's average prices for the tyre-grade rubber would still be higher than last year's $3.11 a kg.
"There was a shift of Indonesian rubber export destination from Japan to China in the last three months, but the volume is very small, only around 10,000 tonnes, he said.
Annual shipments of Indonesian rubber to Japan total 400,000 tonnes, Amir said.
Last month, Gapkindo told Reuters that rubber output in Southeast Asia's largest economy, would rise between 6 and 8 percent this year.
Global demand for rubber, both natural and synthetic, is forecast to rise to 26.1 million tonnes in 2011 from 24.4 million tonnes in 2010, the International Rubber Study Group said in March.
Dealers say this was in part due to a recovery in the automotive sector, though that had not factored in the plight of the Japanese automakers. The U.S. auto industry snapped a four-year sales decline in 2010, including three consecutive months of sales above the 12 million-unit annual rate.
Amir said Indonesian rubber consumption this year would be 460,000 tonnes, in line with the 10 percent rise offered in the March interview.
He said several tyre makers were expanding their factories.
Indonesian rubber exports will be 2.45 million tonnes this year, up from 2.352 million tonnes in 2010, Amir added.
(Reuters, April 15, 2011)
Spiralling costs impact margins
TUESDAY, APRIL 19, 2011 ADMIN
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The MRF stock was down about one per cent after the company last week reported a six per cent year-on-year fall in profits for the quarter ended March. Profits were down to Rs 90 crore on the back of doubling of natural rubber prices last year. Sequentially, natural rubber prices, currently at Rs 230-240 a kg, have risen 16 per cent.
Despite the robust demand, companies have not been able to increase their prices to reflect the jump in the raw material costs due to competitive pressures. High raw material prices and inability to completely pass on the rising costs have meant falling margins for MRF.
HIGH RAW MATERIAL COSTS
Raw material costs as a percentage of sales for MRF increased from 67 per cent a year ago to 76 per cent in the March quarter, resulting in a fall in operating profit margins by 260 bps to 9.2 per cent. With raw material costs at over three quarters of sales, the rise in natural rubber prices as also synthetic rubber and of carbon black on the back of rising crude oil prices will continue to keep margins under pressure.
DEMAND STRONG
While cost pressures are a key worry, revenues, supported by a surge in volumes as well as a rise in prices, jumped 34 per cent to Rs 2,383 crore. Auto volumes for 2010-11 in key segments such as commercial and passenger vehicles have jumped 20-30 per cent over the previous year. With auto volumes expected to grow 12-15 per cent on a higher base for 2011-12, demand from auto manufacturers as well as the replacement market is likely to remain strong. This should keep the revenue momentum going. However, any further increase in interest rates and weak industrial activity will be key risks to demand, especially, for the commercial vehicle sector, and would impact tyre sales.
FINANCIALS
While the high raw material costs are likely to be an issue, a jump in revenues has helped the company keep staff costs and other expenditure as a percentage of sales under control, as compared to the year ago quarter. The challenge for MRF will be to maintain operating profit margins in double digits in 2010-11 (financial year ends in September). While it closed 2009-10 with a margin of 11.1 per cent, for the first six months of the current financial year, the company has just about managed to maintain margins at 10 per cent. At the current price of Rs 6,519, the stock trades at 7.2 times its annualised 2010-11 earnings per share.
Delay in inspection of imported rubber hits industry
TUESDAY, APRIL 19, 2011
Thiruvananthapuram: Delay in mandatory inspection of the quality of imported natural rubber (NR) carried out by government is strangulating inventory management, the rubber industry has said.
The inspections also do not reveal enough inferior sheets to merit the delay in process, it has noted While All India Rubber Industries Association (AIRIA) has urged the commerce ministry to get the inspections stopped, the Automative Tyre Manufacturers Association (ATMA) has written to Rubber Board to consider doing away with the inspection raj for quality imports.
According to sources, the Rubber Board is studying this plea, although it may not be considered in the meeting of the Board on April 18. “The delay in inventory movement because of the quality inspection is hurting the tyre industry,” Rajiv Budhiraja, director-general, ATMA, told FE.
“Sometimes, the delay in inspection would be due to unintended factors like government holidays, we feel that the inspection itself is avoidable,” he said To restrict sub-quality rubber imports, in December 2004, Centre had clamped two curbs. One was the port-based curb, by which natural rubber could be imported only through two ports, Kolkatta and Vizag. The second was that the dumping of low-quality sheets from other rubber-producing countries should be avoided by random quality checks by Rubber Board. The first one was dropped through a court order, after it was challenged by consuming industry.
“This curb of inspection would have been valid only the domestic rubber price was low as in 2004. It is not in tune with then R200-plus per kg domestic price for RSS-4 now,” says Budhiraja.
ATMA argues that a tyre firm would be able to afford to buy natural rubber that does not meet quality standards, since the resultant fall in quality in the finished product would affect their market. The onus would be on the industry, rather than the government, to use rubber that meets quality standards.
“The quality inspection serves only to cause delays,” says Vinod Simon, President, AIRIA. “The rejection rate of imported natural rubber by Rubber Board is less than 1%. This shows that the provision can be dispensed with,” he says.
From May 2011, Centre has included several rubber products including automative tyres and tubes, in the list of products that should have mandatory BIS or ISI quality certification.
Thus quality marking of raw material like natural rubber is redundant. “ Natural rubber is not an end product (for direct consumption by the consumer) in the form that it is imported. Instead it is a raw material and it has to go through a long process of manufacturing to make end products like tyres or other rubber products,” says ATMA’s letter to Rubber Board.
TUESDAY, APRIL 19, 2011
Thailand, the world's biggest rubber producer and exporter, should produce 3.46 million tonnes of rubber this year, down one percent from a January forecast due to heavy floods, the chief of an industry body said on Tuesday (Apr 19).
"We still believe we can produce around 3.46 million tonnes this year, or around 1 percent drop from the previous forecast," Luckchai Kittipol, president of the Thai Rubber Association, told Reuters, referring to a previous forecast of 3.49 million tonnes made in January.
Heavy rains and severe floods in late March battered Thailand's southern rubber-producing region, damaging plantations. Destroyed rubber trees are to be replanted soon, but newly planted trees need up to seven years to mature and start producing latex.
Luckchai said supplies from a 2004 planting expansion in Thailand's northeast would offset some lost production. Farmers in several areas who had stopped tapping latex in late February have also resumed tapping as the dry season ends, he added.
But supplies won't rise immediately. Rubber trees need weeks to rejuvenate and farmers need at least two more weeks to dry and smoke rubber so it can be sold as benchmark RSS-3 grade.
"Supply should rise gradually and return to normal by June at best," Luckchai said. Thailand's monthly production capacity is 280,000-300,000 tonnes of rubber sheet.
PRICES SEEN SUPPORTED
Prices of physical Thai RSS-3 grade rubber have dropped 8.6 percent since striking a record above $6 per kg in February, as economic concerns sparked by the Middle East unrest and worries about the impact of the March 11 earthquake in Japan countered tight supply.
News such as Toyota Motor Corp's decision to build cars at half the rate of its original plans in Japan at least until June 3, which would cost the world's top automaker another 120,000 vehicles in lost production, continued to dampen rubber prices.
Top producers Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia threatened to take action to prop up prices in March, when tyre grades plunged.
But Luckchai expects prices to stay above $5 per kg. "With the prospect of strong demand not only from China and India, but also in Europe and Japan, this year the average price of benchmark Thai RSS-3 should not be below $5.0 per kg," he said.
That is well below a Feb.14 record high of $6.40 per kg but above last year's average price of $3.60 per kg. On Tuesday (Apr 19), Thai RSS-3 grade rubber traded at $5.85 per kg.
Global demand for rubber, both natural and synthetic, is forecast to rise to 26.1 million tonnes in 2011 from 24.4 million tonnes in 2010, the International Rubber Study Group said in March.
Dealers say this was in part due to a recovery in the automotive sector, though that had not factored in the plight of the Japanese automakers. The U.S. auto industry snapped a four-year sales decline in 2010, including three consecutive months of sales above the 12 million-unit annual rate.
(Reuters, April 19, 2011)
NMCE rubber settles down on selling pressure
TUESDAY, APRIL 19, 2011
NMCE rubber futures continued the bearish trend on selling pressure on Monday. TOCOM futures market also traded down on active selling and September futures settled at ¥422.00 per Kg. Fall in oil prices also added to the downside.
Domestic spot market also continued the fall on sluggish demand. Therefore, taking cues from domestic spot and international market futures ended the day on negative note.
The rubbers futures are projected to continue the bearish trend on strong selling interest on Tuesday. TOCOM September futures are also trading down at ¥409.30 per Kg. on active selling.
China may increase its interest rate for 5th time in coming month on rising inflation concern which might pressurize the prices in near term.
Factors to Watch For
Thai market will be closed from April 13 to 15th due to Thai New year. Therefore supply might remain tight in world rubber market
According to Bloomberg sources, China’s natural-rubber imports were 210,000 tons in March, compared with 110,000 tons in February and 190,000 tons in March2010
According to Department of Disaster Prevention & Mitigation, around 19,641 acres of rubber plantations have been damaged in Thailand due to heavy flood
According to the Rubber Research Institute of Thailand, The physical price of Thai rubber dropped to 177.3 baht ($5.89) a kilogram yesterday after the country’s New-Year holidays from 184.8 baht on April 12
As per deputy head of the China Rubber Industry Association, Natural-rubber demand in China, the biggest consumer, will rise 8% this year. Consumption will be 3.24 million metric tons, while tire output will climb 7.9 percent to an all-time high of 453 million units
DERIVATIVE ANALYSIS
Indian Futures (NMCE)
The NMCE May contract, prices and open interest are falling while volumes are rising. Market is running out of traders willing to open or hold a Buy/ Long. Traders are liquidating both loosing long positions & closing winning short positions. A higher probability the market is set to retrace in price lower at some point forward.
Japan Futures (TOCOM)
The TOCOM active September contract, prices and volumes are falling while open interest is rising. It is a good indication that a sharp rally against downtrend will develop creating a sell point for downtrend.
Shanghai Futures (SHFE)
The SHFE active August contract, prices and volumes are falling while open interest is rising. It is a good indication that a sharp rally against downtrend will develop creating a sell point for downtrend.
Courtesy: Karvy Commtrade Ltd.
India rubber output rises 3.7% to 8,61,950 tons
TUESDAY, APRIL 19, 2011
KOTTAYAM, INDIA (Commodity Online): India's natural rubber production has risen 3.7% in 2010-11 to 8,61,950 tons, according to Rubber Board. Revealing the data at the 165th Annual meeting of the Board here, Sheela Thomas, Rubber Board Chairman said that domestic production stood at 8,31,400 tons and anticipated production for 2010-11 was 9,02,000 tonnes. The anticipated consumption in 2010-11 was 9,77,000 tons.
Domestic consumption has increased by 2 per cent in 2010-11. During 2010-11, growth in tyre production in the automotive sector grew by 23 per cent. Export of tyres also increased by 20 per cent. However, truck and bus tyre exports declined by five per cent. During 2010-11 fiscal, exports stood at 28,424 tonnes compared with 25,090 tonnes in the previous fiscal. Imports accounted for 1,77,482 tonnes, 73 per cent of which was through duty free channels.
Rubber Board does not foresee any shortage for the commodity as the opening stock of rubber in 2011-12 was relatively high at 2,77,095 tonnes against 2,11,290 tonnes in 2010-11. Meanwhile, the Automotive Tyre Manufacturers Association (ATMA) has urged the rubber board to take steps to avoid delays in mandatory inspection of imported rubber which is affecting the raw material availability for manufacturers. The onus of ensuring quality of imported rubber should lie with the manufacturers and not the government, ATMA said,.
Key Tokyo rubber futures have fallen 2.3 percent in early trade on Tuesday, tracking losses in Shanghai and Singapore after Standard & Poor's warned it may cut the United States credit rating, sending oil prices plunging and lifting the yen. The key Tokyo Commodity Exchange rubber contract for September delivery was down 9.9 yen at 415.1 yen per kg as of 0021 GMT. The most-active Shanghai rubber contract for September delivery ended 335 yuan lower to finish at 34,960 yuan($5,351.677) per tonnes on Monday, Reuters reported.
At India's National Multi-Commodity Exchange, May rubber futures opened weaker at 23,800 per 100 kg tracking global trends and is currently trading at Rs 23,535 as against previous close of Rs 24,019.
India: Rubber output likely to touch 9.02-lakh t in 2011-12
TUESDAY, APRIL 19, 2011
KOTTAYAM, APRIL 19:
Natural rubber production in the country rose 3.7 per cent during 2010-11 against the previous year.
Domestic production stood at 8,31,400 tonnes in 2009-10 and 8,61,950 tonnes in 2010-11, the Rubber Board Chairperson, Ms Sheela Thomas, said at the 165th meeting of the Board here on Monday.
She said the anticipated production for 2011-12 was 9,02,000 tonnes. Domestic consumption also increased by 2 per cent in 2010-11.
During 2010-11, growth in tyre production in the automotive sector grew by 23 per cent. Export of tyres also increased by 20 per cent. However, truck and bus tyre exports declined by five per cent.
Ms Sheela said the projected rubber consumption in 2011-12 was 9,77,000 tonnes.
During 2010-11 fiscal, exports stood at 28,424 tonnes compared with 25,090 tonnes in the previous fiscal. Imports accounted for 1,77,482 tonnes, 73 per cent of which was through duty free channels.
The chairperson said there would not be any shortage as the opening stock of rubber in 2011-12 was relatively high at 2,77,095 tonnes against 2,11,290 tonnes in 2010-11.
According to the International Rubber Study Group report, global rubber production-consumption balance in 2010 and 2011 showed deficits of 380,000 tonnes and 234,000 tonnes, respectively.
Tokyo Futures Fall, Oil Plunges On S&P U.S. Warning
TUESDAY, APRIL 19, 2011
Key Tokyo rubber futures fell 2.3 percent in early trade on Tuesday (Apr 19), tracking losses in Shanghai and Singapore after Standard & Poor's warned it may cut the United States credit rating, sending oil prices plunging and lifting the yen.
FUNDAMENTALS
The key Tokyo Commodity Exchange rubber contract for September delivery was down 9.9 yen at 415.1 yen per kg as of 0021 GMT.
The most-active Shanghai rubber contract for September delivery ended 335 yuan lower to finish at 34,960 yuan($5,351.677) per tonnes on Monday (Apr 18).
Oil fell sharply on Monday after ratings agency S&P revised lower its U.S. credit outlook to negative and OPEC ministers said high crude prices could place a major strain on consumer countries' economies.
The euro nursed heavy losses early in Asia on Tuesday (Apr 19) while the yen gained across the board as worries about sovereign debt problems in Europe and the United States prompted investors to unwind carry trades.
(Reuters, April 19, 2011)
Tokyo rubber futures at two-week low
TUESDAY, APRIL 19, 2011
Bangkok (april 19, 2011) : tokyo rubber futures fell to a two-week low on monday, hurt by weaker oil prices and a perception prices were overbought, but limited supply in producing countries should offer support, dealers said. the benchmark rubber contract on the tokyo commodity exchange for september delivery fell 10.1 yen to settle at 425.0 yen ($5.112) per kg. it fell as much as 4.2 percent to 416.7 yen per kg, the lowest since march 30.
the most-active shanghai rubber contract for september delivery also ended 335 yuan lower to finish at 34,960 yuan($5,351.677) per tonnes. "there could be a short-term correction as the market was a bit overbought and weaker oil was an additional negative factor. however, prices could still be supported by tight supply in producing countries," one dealer said. rubber prices will average $4.5 per kg this year as producers try to take advantage of relatively high prices, the indonesian rubber association (gapkindo) said on friday, above last year's average.
Rubber To Average $4.5/Kg In 2011, Above Last Year by GAPKINDO
TUESDAY, APRIL 19, 2011
Rubber prices will average $4.5 per kg this year as producers try to take advantage of relatively high prices, the Indonesian Rubber Association (Gapkindo) said on Friday (Apr 15), above last year's average.
Indonesia, the world's second-largest rubber producer, will produce an estimated 2.972 million tonnes of rubber this year, versus 2.736 million tonnes last year, Asril Sutan Amir, chairman at Gapkindo told a news conference.
"High rubber price has encouraged farmers to over tap the rubber trees," Amir said. "It is still relatively high."
Prices of physical Indonesian SIR20 rubber have dropped more than a third since striking a record above $6 per kg in February, as economic concerns sparked by the Middle East unrest and worries about the impact of the March 11 earthquake in Japan countered tight supply.
News such as Toyota Motor Corp's decision to build cars at half the rate of its original plans in Japan at least until June 3, which would cost the world's top automaker another 120,000 vehicles in lost production, continued to dampen rubber prices.
Top producers Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia threatened to take action to prop up prices in March, when tyre grades plunged.
But this year's average prices for the tyre-grade rubber would still be higher than last year's $3.11 a kg.
"There was a shift of Indonesian rubber export destination from Japan to China in the last three months, but the volume is very small, only around 10,000 tonnes, he said.
Annual shipments of Indonesian rubber to Japan total 400,000 tonnes, Amir said.
Last month, Gapkindo told Reuters that rubber output in Southeast Asia's largest economy, would rise between 6 and 8 percent this year.
Global demand for rubber, both natural and synthetic, is forecast to rise to 26.1 million tonnes in 2011 from 24.4 million tonnes in 2010, the International Rubber Study Group said in March.
Dealers say this was in part due to a recovery in the automotive sector, though that had not factored in the plight of the Japanese automakers. The U.S. auto industry snapped a four-year sales decline in 2010, including three consecutive months of sales above the 12 million-unit annual rate.
Amir said Indonesian rubber consumption this year would be 460,000 tonnes, in line with the 10 percent rise offered in the March interview.
He said several tyre makers were expanding their factories.
Indonesian rubber exports will be 2.45 million tonnes this year, up from 2.352 million tonnes in 2010, Amir added.
(Reuters, April 15, 2011)
Spiralling costs impact margins
TUESDAY, APRIL 19, 2011 ADMIN
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The MRF stock was down about one per cent after the company last week reported a six per cent year-on-year fall in profits for the quarter ended March. Profits were down to Rs 90 crore on the back of doubling of natural rubber prices last year. Sequentially, natural rubber prices, currently at Rs 230-240 a kg, have risen 16 per cent.
Despite the robust demand, companies have not been able to increase their prices to reflect the jump in the raw material costs due to competitive pressures. High raw material prices and inability to completely pass on the rising costs have meant falling margins for MRF.
HIGH RAW MATERIAL COSTS
Raw material costs as a percentage of sales for MRF increased from 67 per cent a year ago to 76 per cent in the March quarter, resulting in a fall in operating profit margins by 260 bps to 9.2 per cent. With raw material costs at over three quarters of sales, the rise in natural rubber prices as also synthetic rubber and of carbon black on the back of rising crude oil prices will continue to keep margins under pressure.
DEMAND STRONG
While cost pressures are a key worry, revenues, supported by a surge in volumes as well as a rise in prices, jumped 34 per cent to Rs 2,383 crore. Auto volumes for 2010-11 in key segments such as commercial and passenger vehicles have jumped 20-30 per cent over the previous year. With auto volumes expected to grow 12-15 per cent on a higher base for 2011-12, demand from auto manufacturers as well as the replacement market is likely to remain strong. This should keep the revenue momentum going. However, any further increase in interest rates and weak industrial activity will be key risks to demand, especially, for the commercial vehicle sector, and would impact tyre sales.
FINANCIALS
While the high raw material costs are likely to be an issue, a jump in revenues has helped the company keep staff costs and other expenditure as a percentage of sales under control, as compared to the year ago quarter. The challenge for MRF will be to maintain operating profit margins in double digits in 2010-11 (financial year ends in September). While it closed 2009-10 with a margin of 11.1 per cent, for the first six months of the current financial year, the company has just about managed to maintain margins at 10 per cent. At the current price of Rs 6,519, the stock trades at 7.2 times its annualised 2010-11 earnings per share.
Delay in inspection of imported rubber hits industry
TUESDAY, APRIL 19, 2011
Thiruvananthapuram: Delay in mandatory inspection of the quality of imported natural rubber (NR) carried out by government is strangulating inventory management, the rubber industry has said.
The inspections also do not reveal enough inferior sheets to merit the delay in process, it has noted While All India Rubber Industries Association (AIRIA) has urged the commerce ministry to get the inspections stopped, the Automative Tyre Manufacturers Association (ATMA) has written to Rubber Board to consider doing away with the inspection raj for quality imports.
According to sources, the Rubber Board is studying this plea, although it may not be considered in the meeting of the Board on April 18. “The delay in inventory movement because of the quality inspection is hurting the tyre industry,” Rajiv Budhiraja, director-general, ATMA, told FE.
“Sometimes, the delay in inspection would be due to unintended factors like government holidays, we feel that the inspection itself is avoidable,” he said To restrict sub-quality rubber imports, in December 2004, Centre had clamped two curbs. One was the port-based curb, by which natural rubber could be imported only through two ports, Kolkatta and Vizag. The second was that the dumping of low-quality sheets from other rubber-producing countries should be avoided by random quality checks by Rubber Board. The first one was dropped through a court order, after it was challenged by consuming industry.
“This curb of inspection would have been valid only the domestic rubber price was low as in 2004. It is not in tune with then R200-plus per kg domestic price for RSS-4 now,” says Budhiraja.
ATMA argues that a tyre firm would be able to afford to buy natural rubber that does not meet quality standards, since the resultant fall in quality in the finished product would affect their market. The onus would be on the industry, rather than the government, to use rubber that meets quality standards.
“The quality inspection serves only to cause delays,” says Vinod Simon, President, AIRIA. “The rejection rate of imported natural rubber by Rubber Board is less than 1%. This shows that the provision can be dispensed with,” he says.
From May 2011, Centre has included several rubber products including automative tyres and tubes, in the list of products that should have mandatory BIS or ISI quality certification.
Thus quality marking of raw material like natural rubber is redundant. “ Natural rubber is not an end product (for direct consumption by the consumer) in the form that it is imported. Instead it is a raw material and it has to go through a long process of manufacturing to make end products like tyres or other rubber products,” says ATMA’s letter to Rubber Board.
Wednesday, April 13, 2011
Tokyo Rubber Futures Tumble as Oil Falls
Tokyo Rubber Futures Tumble as Oil Falls
TUESDAY, APRIL 12, 2011
Key Tokyo rubber futures tumbled 3.7 percent in early morning trade on Tuesday (April 12), hit by a drop in oil prices and the yen's rise, but a limited supply from Thailand will likely support the downside.
The key Tokyo Commodity Exchange rubber contract for September delivery was down 2.9 percent, or 13.7 yen, at 461.5 yen as of 0039 GMT. The contract plunged as low as 457.2 yen in the evening session on Monday (April 11), which is counted as part of the Tuesday regular session.
The lead contract last week posted its biggest weekly increase since the week ending on March 18.
"The yen's rise and a plunge in oil prices are affecting the rubber market. But limited supply from Thailand, where the market is closed due to a festival, will support the downside," said Hiyuki Kikukawa, a general manager at Nihon Unicom Inc in Tokyo, a trading company.
The most active Shanghai rubber contract for September delivery rose 385 yuan to close at 37,065 yuan ($5,672) per tonne on Monday (Apr.11). Volume stood at 501,028 lots.
Brent and U.S. crude fell more than $1.50 a barrel on Tuesday (Apr.12) in Asian trade as long-term commodity bull Goldman Sachs advised investors to lock in trading profits before oil and other markets reverse.
Stock prices mostly fell on Monday as energy shares sold off on lower oil prices, and as the earnings season onset was clouded by concern that company outlooks may fall short of expectations.
Car sales in China rose 6.5 percent to 1.35 million units in March, recovering from the lowest growth rate in two years in February but still well below the hectic pace seen last year.
Toyota Motor Corp on Monday (Apr.11) warned that the uncertain supply of parts from Japan could threaten its output of vehicles through July, the latest sign of trouble for the global auto industry stemming from the massive Japanese earthquake a month ago.
(Reuters, Tokyo, April 12, 2011)
Malaysia natural rubber output slides 15.8% in February
TUESDAY, APRIL 12, 2011
KUALA LUMPUR (Commodity Online): Malaysia’s natural rubber output for February dropped 15.8% to touch 91,449 tons.
This is a dip from 108,625 tons recorded in January, but a climb of 12.9% Y-O-Y output from 81,031 tons.
Total stocks for end of February stood at 191,538 tons up 7.2% over January. But this is 1.1% lower at 193,685 tons over same period previous year.
Small holders of rubber contributed 94.2% of February production while the estate sector accounted for the rest.
Exports slid 10.9 per cent to 69,638 tons in February from 70,551 tons in January. This February figure is higher from 50,362 tons recorded in the same period last year.
In January, to promote rubber cultivation in Malaysia, the Malaysian Rubber Board (MRB) had established two pivotal facilities.
MRB Similajau Station and Malaysian Rubber Budwood Centre (MRBC), are touted the first of their kind.
The station’s functioning is to facilitate technology transfer of new clones and agronomic practices, through various supply systems and training measures, while MRBC shall produce 3.24 million rubber budwoods a year.
Similajau Station, spread across 1,180ha and the MRBC covering 45 ha are widely expected to boost rubber cultivation in Sabah and Sarawak; two other provinces in Malaysia where the government intends to plant high-yielding rubber trees in 300,000 ha and 500,000 ha respectively by 2020.
February Rubber Output Down 15.8 Per Cent
TUESDAY, APRIL 12, 2011
KUALA LUMPUR, April 12 (Bernama) -- Natural rubber output in February fell 15.8 per cent to 91,449 tonnes, from 108,625 tonnes recorded in January, but rose 12.9 per cent when compared with a year ago's output of 81,031 tonnes.
Total stocks stood at 191,538 tonnes, at end-Feb, up 7.2 per cent over January but was 1.1 per cent lower at 193,685 tonnes in the same period last year.
Smallholding sector contributed 94.2 per cent of total production in February while the estate sector accounted for 5.8 per cent.
Exports of natural rubber dipped 10.9 per cent to 69,638 tonnes in February, against January's output of 78,143 tonnes but increased against 65,296 tonnes exported in February last year.
Natural rubber imports fell 23.3 per cent to 54,083 tonnes in February from 70,551 tonnes, a month earlier, but was higher when compared with 50,362 tonnes recorded in the same period last year.
NMCE, India: Sheet rubber slips on buyer resistance
TUESDAY, APRIL 12, 2011
KOTTAYAM, APRIL 11:
Physical rubber prices witnessed a mixed trend on Monday. The market remained under pressure following the early declines in domestic futures but the losses were limited since the prices recovered partially on the National Multi-Commodity Exchange (NMCE).
Sheet rubber slipped to Rs 240 a kg(Rs 241) on buyer resistance. The grade improved to Rs 240 a kg (Rs 239.50) both at Kottayam and Kochi, according to the Rubber Board.
RSS-4 weakened in the April series to Rs 239.50 (Rs 241.41), May to Rs 245.90 (Rs 249.05), June to Rs 251.11 (Rs 253.40), July to Rs 250.85 (Rs 253.93), August to Rs 245.50 (Rs 248.39) and September to Rs 238.50 (Rs 242.75) a kg on the NMCE.
The volumes totalled 12,620 lots and open interest 8,679 lots. The turnover was Rs 311.49 crore.
Spot rates
RSS-3 (spot) closed at Rs 271.23 a kg (Rs 270.39) at Bangkok. April futures improved to ¥492 (Rs 257.60) from ¥480 during the day session but then declined to ¥485 a kg (Rs 253.88) in the night session on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange.
Spot rates were (Rs/kg): RSS-4 — 240 (241); RSS-5 — 238 (238); ungraded — 233 (234); ISNR 20 — 235 (235) and Latex 60 per cent — 142 (142).
TUESDAY, APRIL 12, 2011
Key Tokyo rubber futures tumbled 3.7 percent in early morning trade on Tuesday (April 12), hit by a drop in oil prices and the yen's rise, but a limited supply from Thailand will likely support the downside.
The key Tokyo Commodity Exchange rubber contract for September delivery was down 2.9 percent, or 13.7 yen, at 461.5 yen as of 0039 GMT. The contract plunged as low as 457.2 yen in the evening session on Monday (April 11), which is counted as part of the Tuesday regular session.
The lead contract last week posted its biggest weekly increase since the week ending on March 18.
"The yen's rise and a plunge in oil prices are affecting the rubber market. But limited supply from Thailand, where the market is closed due to a festival, will support the downside," said Hiyuki Kikukawa, a general manager at Nihon Unicom Inc in Tokyo, a trading company.
The most active Shanghai rubber contract for September delivery rose 385 yuan to close at 37,065 yuan ($5,672) per tonne on Monday (Apr.11). Volume stood at 501,028 lots.
Brent and U.S. crude fell more than $1.50 a barrel on Tuesday (Apr.12) in Asian trade as long-term commodity bull Goldman Sachs advised investors to lock in trading profits before oil and other markets reverse.
Stock prices mostly fell on Monday as energy shares sold off on lower oil prices, and as the earnings season onset was clouded by concern that company outlooks may fall short of expectations.
Car sales in China rose 6.5 percent to 1.35 million units in March, recovering from the lowest growth rate in two years in February but still well below the hectic pace seen last year.
Toyota Motor Corp on Monday (Apr.11) warned that the uncertain supply of parts from Japan could threaten its output of vehicles through July, the latest sign of trouble for the global auto industry stemming from the massive Japanese earthquake a month ago.
(Reuters, Tokyo, April 12, 2011)
Malaysia natural rubber output slides 15.8% in February
TUESDAY, APRIL 12, 2011
KUALA LUMPUR (Commodity Online): Malaysia’s natural rubber output for February dropped 15.8% to touch 91,449 tons.
This is a dip from 108,625 tons recorded in January, but a climb of 12.9% Y-O-Y output from 81,031 tons.
Total stocks for end of February stood at 191,538 tons up 7.2% over January. But this is 1.1% lower at 193,685 tons over same period previous year.
Small holders of rubber contributed 94.2% of February production while the estate sector accounted for the rest.
Exports slid 10.9 per cent to 69,638 tons in February from 70,551 tons in January. This February figure is higher from 50,362 tons recorded in the same period last year.
In January, to promote rubber cultivation in Malaysia, the Malaysian Rubber Board (MRB) had established two pivotal facilities.
MRB Similajau Station and Malaysian Rubber Budwood Centre (MRBC), are touted the first of their kind.
The station’s functioning is to facilitate technology transfer of new clones and agronomic practices, through various supply systems and training measures, while MRBC shall produce 3.24 million rubber budwoods a year.
Similajau Station, spread across 1,180ha and the MRBC covering 45 ha are widely expected to boost rubber cultivation in Sabah and Sarawak; two other provinces in Malaysia where the government intends to plant high-yielding rubber trees in 300,000 ha and 500,000 ha respectively by 2020.
February Rubber Output Down 15.8 Per Cent
TUESDAY, APRIL 12, 2011
KUALA LUMPUR, April 12 (Bernama) -- Natural rubber output in February fell 15.8 per cent to 91,449 tonnes, from 108,625 tonnes recorded in January, but rose 12.9 per cent when compared with a year ago's output of 81,031 tonnes.
Total stocks stood at 191,538 tonnes, at end-Feb, up 7.2 per cent over January but was 1.1 per cent lower at 193,685 tonnes in the same period last year.
Smallholding sector contributed 94.2 per cent of total production in February while the estate sector accounted for 5.8 per cent.
Exports of natural rubber dipped 10.9 per cent to 69,638 tonnes in February, against January's output of 78,143 tonnes but increased against 65,296 tonnes exported in February last year.
Natural rubber imports fell 23.3 per cent to 54,083 tonnes in February from 70,551 tonnes, a month earlier, but was higher when compared with 50,362 tonnes recorded in the same period last year.
NMCE, India: Sheet rubber slips on buyer resistance
TUESDAY, APRIL 12, 2011
KOTTAYAM, APRIL 11:
Physical rubber prices witnessed a mixed trend on Monday. The market remained under pressure following the early declines in domestic futures but the losses were limited since the prices recovered partially on the National Multi-Commodity Exchange (NMCE).
Sheet rubber slipped to Rs 240 a kg(Rs 241) on buyer resistance. The grade improved to Rs 240 a kg (Rs 239.50) both at Kottayam and Kochi, according to the Rubber Board.
RSS-4 weakened in the April series to Rs 239.50 (Rs 241.41), May to Rs 245.90 (Rs 249.05), June to Rs 251.11 (Rs 253.40), July to Rs 250.85 (Rs 253.93), August to Rs 245.50 (Rs 248.39) and September to Rs 238.50 (Rs 242.75) a kg on the NMCE.
The volumes totalled 12,620 lots and open interest 8,679 lots. The turnover was Rs 311.49 crore.
Spot rates
RSS-3 (spot) closed at Rs 271.23 a kg (Rs 270.39) at Bangkok. April futures improved to ¥492 (Rs 257.60) from ¥480 during the day session but then declined to ¥485 a kg (Rs 253.88) in the night session on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange.
Spot rates were (Rs/kg): RSS-4 — 240 (241); RSS-5 — 238 (238); ungraded — 233 (234); ISNR 20 — 235 (235) and Latex 60 per cent — 142 (142).
Tuesday, April 12, 2011
Rubber Gains To 5-Week High On Tight Supply During Thai New Year
Rubber Gains To 5-Week High On Tight Supply During Thai New Year
MONDAY, APRIL 11, 2011
Rubber climbed to the highest level in five weeks on concerns that supply will tighten during New Year holidays in Thailand, the largest exporter. The September-delivery contract advanced as much as 3.9 percent to 481.9 yen a kilogram ($5,688 a metric ton), the highest level since March 3, and traded at 472.1 yen at 2:12 p.m.on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange. The most-active contract gained 8.5 percent last week, the most since Nov. 5.
“Supply will stop temporarily during Thai New Year festival,” said Hiroyuki Kikukawa, general manager of research at IDO Securities in Tokyo. Government agencies and banks will be closed during April 13-15 in Thailand. Rising crude oil prices and a decline in China’s rubber stockpiles are also supporting prices, said Kikukawa. Natural-rubber inventories fell for a ninth week, down 5,645 tons to an eight-month low of 21,966 tons, based on a survey of 10 warehouses in Shanghai, Shandong, Yunnan, Hainan and Tianjin, the Shanghai Futures Exchange said Friday (Apr 8). China’s natural-rubber imports were 210,000 tons in March, compared with 110,000 tons in February and 190,000 tons in March 2010, customs data showed yesterday (Apr 10). Inbound shipments declined about 4 percent to 470,000 tons in the first three months from 490,000 tons a year ago, customs said on its website on April 10.
Thai Supply
“Supply availability is limited following floods in the country’s southern provinces, providing positive sentiment to the market,” Navarat Kaewpratarn, a senior marketing official at Future Agri Trade Co. said by phone from Bangkok. Supply in Thailand declined after floods in southern provinces damaged plantations. Flooding in 10 southern provinces of Thailand has killed 58 people and affected 2 million, the Department of Disaster Prevention & Mitigation said in a statement on its website. About 50,000 rai (19,641 acres) of rubber plantations have been damaged. Oil advanced for a fourth day in New York as NATO escalated its air campaign over Libya and on concern unrest may spread to other energy-exporting countries in the Middle East. Crude oil for May delivery gained as much as 67 cents to $113.46 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange today (Apr 11). The physical price of Thai rubber climbed 0.4 percent to 184.80 baht ($6.15) a kilogram today (Apr 11), according to the Rubber Research Institute of Thailand. Supply remained low in southern Thailand as some plantations are still inundated, disrupting latex tapping, it said.
Rubber for September delivery gained as much as 3.6 percent to 37,985 yuan ($5,811) a ton on the Shanghai Futures Exchange before trading at 37,130 yuan at the midday break.
(Bloomberg, April 12, 2011)
Tokyo Futures Rise 3 Pct On Commodity Rally
MONDAY, APRIL 11, 2011
Key Tokyo rubber futures rose more than 3 percent on Monday (Apr 11), drawing support from a rally in other commodities markets late last week.
FUNDAMENTALS
The key Tokyo Commodity Exchange rubber contract for September delivery rose as high as 481.9 yen per kg after the open, up 18.1 yen or 3.9 percent from Friday's (Apr 8) settlement of 463.8 yen. That was the highest for a benchmark contract since March 3.
The contract last week posted its biggest weekly increase since the week ending on March 18.
Tokyo rubber futures were expected to stay firm and were likely to rise further on the back of supply tightness at a time when demand remains strong, a Reuters poll showed on Friday (Apr 8).
The most active Shanghai rubber contract for September delivery rose 890 yuan to close at 36,680 yuan ($5,606) per tonne on Friday (Apr 8). Volume picked up to 581,410 lots from Thursday's 448,114 lots.
U.S. crude futures rose above $113 a barrel on Monday (Apr 11), their highest since September 2008, as a weak dollar continued to support a recent rally in commodities. Oil also drew extra support from fears that the war in Libya was starting to inflict lasting damage on the oil sector.
The yen stayed on the backfoot early in Asia on Monday (Apr 11), while the dollar struggled against other currencies as investors continued to pile on carry trades in favour of higher-yielding assets.
(Reuters, April 11, 2011)
NMCE Rubber surges on fresh buying
MONDAY, APRIL 11, 2011
NMCE rubber futures traded positive on active fresh buying on lower level on Saturday. TOCOM futures market also witnessed positive trend and September futures settled at ¥463.70 per Kg on Friday. Domestic spot market witnessed small recovery on Saturday. Thus, on cues from overall market trend prices at NMCE platform ended the day on positive note.
The rubbers futures are projected to continue the gains on follow through buying on Monday. TOCOM September futures are trading higher at ¥479.0 per Kg. on lower level buying. Limited supply from Thailand due to New Year holiday might support the prices international market. However, domestic Indian rubber market has again fallen on Sunday which might limit the gains.
Factors to Watch For
Thai market will be closed from April 13 to 15th due to Thai New year. Therefore supply might remain tight in world rubber market
According to Bloomberg sources, China’s natural-rubber imports were 210,000 tons in March, compared with 110,000 tons in February and 190,000 tons in March2010
Floods in Thailand, world’s largest exporter have impacted the supply of commodity used in tyres and rising crude oil prices are also supporting the rubber prices
According to Department of Disaster Prevention & Mitigation, around 19,641 acres of rubber plantations have been damaged in Thailand due to heavy flood
According to the Rubber Research Institute of Thailand, physical price of Thai rubber gained 0.5 percent to 184 baht ($6.12) a kg. Friday
As per deputy head of the China Rubber Industry Association, Natural-rubber demand in China, the biggest consumer, will rise 8% this year. Consumption will be 3.24 million metric tons, while tire output will climb 7.9 percent to an all-time high of 453 million units
DERIVATIVE ANALYSIS
Indian Futures (NMCE)
The NMCE May contract, prices and open interest are rising while volumes are declining. Market is attracting late buyers & early shorts; market is vulnerable to a sharp correction but likely that that correction will be bought creating a buy point for uptrend.
Japan Futures (TOCOM)
The TOCOM active August contract, prices are rising while volumes and open interest are falling. Market is running out of traders willing to open or hold an open long/buy. Traders are liquidating both loosing short positions & closing winning long positions. A higher probability the market is set to retrace in price lower at some point forward.
Shanghai Futures (SHFE)
The SHFE active July contract, prices, volumes are rising while open interest is falling. Market has a lot of traders initiating from both sides but larger traders may be liquidating into the higher prices. The market may be vulnerable to large price swings as shorter time frame traders attempt to trade from both sides of the market but liquidating before end of- day. Often signals of a market turn near-term or continued volatility.
Courtesy: Karvy Commtrade Ltd.
China rubber imports swell 90.9% in March
MONDAY, APRIL 11, 2011
BEIJING (Commodity Online): China’s rubber imports in March surged 90.9% month-on-month to touch 210,000 tons, reported webstock.com.cn, citing the General Administration of Customs in China.
This is a rise of 10.5% Y-O-Y.
But total imports of rubber in the first three months declined 4.6% Y-O-Y to reach 470,000 tons.
Synthetic rubber imports in March jumped 68.9 percent month-on-month and in comparison with the period a year back registered a decline of 15.6 percent to 154,092 tons.
Synthetic rubber imports fell 10.2 percent year-on-year to 385,037 tons during the first three months.
Nitrile Rubber Market To Reach 645kt By 2017 - Study
MONDAY, APRIL 11, 2011
The global market for Nitrile Rubber (NBR) is projected to exceed 645 thousand tons by the year 2017, according to a new report. Key factors driving the market include the increasing industrialisation and development of infrastructure projects and automobile industry in the emerging economies of Asia-Pacific, Middle East and Latin America.
Global Industry Analysts has published a new report titled, NITRILE BUTADIENE RUBBER (NBR) - A Global Strategic Business Report. The 180-page report was first published in April 2011 and is available for a price of around USD4600, depending on delivery options.
The publishers say, "The industry faced severe after-effects of the global economic slowdown that began in late 2007 and assumed debilitating proportions in 2008 and 2009. A key reason for the collapse in NBR demand was attributable to the downslide in automobile production as a result of fall in automobile sales, primarily in high-income countries. The severely hit construction sector also led to a significant drop in demand for NBR. In addition, the soaring prices for feedstock butadiene forced companies to cut down on NBR production. The effect of the increase in prices of the feedstock was also intensified by the weakening dollar."
(European Rubber Journal, April 8, 2011)
China March Natural Rubber Imports 210,000 Tons
MONDAY, APRIL 11, 2011
China’s natural rubber imports were 210,000 metric tons in March, according to a customs agency statement posted on its website today.
Spot rubber prices improve
MONDAY, APRIL 11, 2011
KOTTAYAM, APRIL 9:
Domestic rubber prices improved on Saturday. On the spot, prices firmed up mainly on covering purchases following the moderate gains on the National Multi Commodity Exchange.
Sheet rubber closed firm at Rs 241 (239) a kg, according to traders. The weekend session ended on a positive note giving hope for a better opening on Monday.
FUTURES GAIN
In futures, the April series improved to Rs 241.60 (238.88), May to Rs 249 (246.21), June to Rs 253.49 (250.16), July to Rs 254 (251.50), August to Rs 248.39 (242.01) and September to Rs 243.50 (242.27) a kg on the NMCE.
Spot rates were (Rs/kg): RSS-4: 241 (239); RSS-5: 238 (235.50); ungraded: 234 (231); ISNR 20: 235 (234) and latex 60 per cent: 142 (140).
MONDAY, APRIL 11, 2011
Rubber climbed to the highest level in five weeks on concerns that supply will tighten during New Year holidays in Thailand, the largest exporter. The September-delivery contract advanced as much as 3.9 percent to 481.9 yen a kilogram ($5,688 a metric ton), the highest level since March 3, and traded at 472.1 yen at 2:12 p.m.on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange. The most-active contract gained 8.5 percent last week, the most since Nov. 5.
“Supply will stop temporarily during Thai New Year festival,” said Hiroyuki Kikukawa, general manager of research at IDO Securities in Tokyo. Government agencies and banks will be closed during April 13-15 in Thailand. Rising crude oil prices and a decline in China’s rubber stockpiles are also supporting prices, said Kikukawa. Natural-rubber inventories fell for a ninth week, down 5,645 tons to an eight-month low of 21,966 tons, based on a survey of 10 warehouses in Shanghai, Shandong, Yunnan, Hainan and Tianjin, the Shanghai Futures Exchange said Friday (Apr 8). China’s natural-rubber imports were 210,000 tons in March, compared with 110,000 tons in February and 190,000 tons in March 2010, customs data showed yesterday (Apr 10). Inbound shipments declined about 4 percent to 470,000 tons in the first three months from 490,000 tons a year ago, customs said on its website on April 10.
Thai Supply
“Supply availability is limited following floods in the country’s southern provinces, providing positive sentiment to the market,” Navarat Kaewpratarn, a senior marketing official at Future Agri Trade Co. said by phone from Bangkok. Supply in Thailand declined after floods in southern provinces damaged plantations. Flooding in 10 southern provinces of Thailand has killed 58 people and affected 2 million, the Department of Disaster Prevention & Mitigation said in a statement on its website. About 50,000 rai (19,641 acres) of rubber plantations have been damaged. Oil advanced for a fourth day in New York as NATO escalated its air campaign over Libya and on concern unrest may spread to other energy-exporting countries in the Middle East. Crude oil for May delivery gained as much as 67 cents to $113.46 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange today (Apr 11). The physical price of Thai rubber climbed 0.4 percent to 184.80 baht ($6.15) a kilogram today (Apr 11), according to the Rubber Research Institute of Thailand. Supply remained low in southern Thailand as some plantations are still inundated, disrupting latex tapping, it said.
Rubber for September delivery gained as much as 3.6 percent to 37,985 yuan ($5,811) a ton on the Shanghai Futures Exchange before trading at 37,130 yuan at the midday break.
(Bloomberg, April 12, 2011)
Tokyo Futures Rise 3 Pct On Commodity Rally
MONDAY, APRIL 11, 2011
Key Tokyo rubber futures rose more than 3 percent on Monday (Apr 11), drawing support from a rally in other commodities markets late last week.
FUNDAMENTALS
The key Tokyo Commodity Exchange rubber contract for September delivery rose as high as 481.9 yen per kg after the open, up 18.1 yen or 3.9 percent from Friday's (Apr 8) settlement of 463.8 yen. That was the highest for a benchmark contract since March 3.
The contract last week posted its biggest weekly increase since the week ending on March 18.
Tokyo rubber futures were expected to stay firm and were likely to rise further on the back of supply tightness at a time when demand remains strong, a Reuters poll showed on Friday (Apr 8).
The most active Shanghai rubber contract for September delivery rose 890 yuan to close at 36,680 yuan ($5,606) per tonne on Friday (Apr 8). Volume picked up to 581,410 lots from Thursday's 448,114 lots.
U.S. crude futures rose above $113 a barrel on Monday (Apr 11), their highest since September 2008, as a weak dollar continued to support a recent rally in commodities. Oil also drew extra support from fears that the war in Libya was starting to inflict lasting damage on the oil sector.
The yen stayed on the backfoot early in Asia on Monday (Apr 11), while the dollar struggled against other currencies as investors continued to pile on carry trades in favour of higher-yielding assets.
(Reuters, April 11, 2011)
NMCE Rubber surges on fresh buying
MONDAY, APRIL 11, 2011
NMCE rubber futures traded positive on active fresh buying on lower level on Saturday. TOCOM futures market also witnessed positive trend and September futures settled at ¥463.70 per Kg on Friday. Domestic spot market witnessed small recovery on Saturday. Thus, on cues from overall market trend prices at NMCE platform ended the day on positive note.
The rubbers futures are projected to continue the gains on follow through buying on Monday. TOCOM September futures are trading higher at ¥479.0 per Kg. on lower level buying. Limited supply from Thailand due to New Year holiday might support the prices international market. However, domestic Indian rubber market has again fallen on Sunday which might limit the gains.
Factors to Watch For
Thai market will be closed from April 13 to 15th due to Thai New year. Therefore supply might remain tight in world rubber market
According to Bloomberg sources, China’s natural-rubber imports were 210,000 tons in March, compared with 110,000 tons in February and 190,000 tons in March2010
Floods in Thailand, world’s largest exporter have impacted the supply of commodity used in tyres and rising crude oil prices are also supporting the rubber prices
According to Department of Disaster Prevention & Mitigation, around 19,641 acres of rubber plantations have been damaged in Thailand due to heavy flood
According to the Rubber Research Institute of Thailand, physical price of Thai rubber gained 0.5 percent to 184 baht ($6.12) a kg. Friday
As per deputy head of the China Rubber Industry Association, Natural-rubber demand in China, the biggest consumer, will rise 8% this year. Consumption will be 3.24 million metric tons, while tire output will climb 7.9 percent to an all-time high of 453 million units
DERIVATIVE ANALYSIS
Indian Futures (NMCE)
The NMCE May contract, prices and open interest are rising while volumes are declining. Market is attracting late buyers & early shorts; market is vulnerable to a sharp correction but likely that that correction will be bought creating a buy point for uptrend.
Japan Futures (TOCOM)
The TOCOM active August contract, prices are rising while volumes and open interest are falling. Market is running out of traders willing to open or hold an open long/buy. Traders are liquidating both loosing short positions & closing winning long positions. A higher probability the market is set to retrace in price lower at some point forward.
Shanghai Futures (SHFE)
The SHFE active July contract, prices, volumes are rising while open interest is falling. Market has a lot of traders initiating from both sides but larger traders may be liquidating into the higher prices. The market may be vulnerable to large price swings as shorter time frame traders attempt to trade from both sides of the market but liquidating before end of- day. Often signals of a market turn near-term or continued volatility.
Courtesy: Karvy Commtrade Ltd.
China rubber imports swell 90.9% in March
MONDAY, APRIL 11, 2011
BEIJING (Commodity Online): China’s rubber imports in March surged 90.9% month-on-month to touch 210,000 tons, reported webstock.com.cn, citing the General Administration of Customs in China.
This is a rise of 10.5% Y-O-Y.
But total imports of rubber in the first three months declined 4.6% Y-O-Y to reach 470,000 tons.
Synthetic rubber imports in March jumped 68.9 percent month-on-month and in comparison with the period a year back registered a decline of 15.6 percent to 154,092 tons.
Synthetic rubber imports fell 10.2 percent year-on-year to 385,037 tons during the first three months.
Nitrile Rubber Market To Reach 645kt By 2017 - Study
MONDAY, APRIL 11, 2011
The global market for Nitrile Rubber (NBR) is projected to exceed 645 thousand tons by the year 2017, according to a new report. Key factors driving the market include the increasing industrialisation and development of infrastructure projects and automobile industry in the emerging economies of Asia-Pacific, Middle East and Latin America.
Global Industry Analysts has published a new report titled, NITRILE BUTADIENE RUBBER (NBR) - A Global Strategic Business Report. The 180-page report was first published in April 2011 and is available for a price of around USD4600, depending on delivery options.
The publishers say, "The industry faced severe after-effects of the global economic slowdown that began in late 2007 and assumed debilitating proportions in 2008 and 2009. A key reason for the collapse in NBR demand was attributable to the downslide in automobile production as a result of fall in automobile sales, primarily in high-income countries. The severely hit construction sector also led to a significant drop in demand for NBR. In addition, the soaring prices for feedstock butadiene forced companies to cut down on NBR production. The effect of the increase in prices of the feedstock was also intensified by the weakening dollar."
(European Rubber Journal, April 8, 2011)
China March Natural Rubber Imports 210,000 Tons
MONDAY, APRIL 11, 2011
China’s natural rubber imports were 210,000 metric tons in March, according to a customs agency statement posted on its website today.
Spot rubber prices improve
MONDAY, APRIL 11, 2011
KOTTAYAM, APRIL 9:
Domestic rubber prices improved on Saturday. On the spot, prices firmed up mainly on covering purchases following the moderate gains on the National Multi Commodity Exchange.
Sheet rubber closed firm at Rs 241 (239) a kg, according to traders. The weekend session ended on a positive note giving hope for a better opening on Monday.
FUTURES GAIN
In futures, the April series improved to Rs 241.60 (238.88), May to Rs 249 (246.21), June to Rs 253.49 (250.16), July to Rs 254 (251.50), August to Rs 248.39 (242.01) and September to Rs 243.50 (242.27) a kg on the NMCE.
Spot rates were (Rs/kg): RSS-4: 241 (239); RSS-5: 238 (235.50); ungraded: 234 (231); ISNR 20: 235 (234) and latex 60 per cent: 142 (140).
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