Natural rubber supply to fall 5.6% this year

Natural rubber supply to fall 5.6% this year
December 7, 2011





The latest estimates of demand and supply of natural rubber (NR) by the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC) show the supply would be 5.6 per cent low in 2011 and 3.6 per cent in 2012.

The revised outlook suggests the total supply this year (January-December) will rise to 10.02 million tonnes (mt), up 5.6 per cent, but lower than the six per cent rate previously expected.

Early estimates by ANRPC indicate the price fall had started impacting the supply of the commodity. The global price of RSS-4 grade fell to Rs 174-175 a kg from Rs 185 a kg a month back. The average price in September was Rs 205 a kg. The decreasing trend in price is expected to affect the production of rubber. The total supply from member-countries of the ANRPC, which grew annually at 10.6 per cent in the first quarter and 10.7 per cent in the second, has slowed to 2.5 per cent in Q3, and is expected to do so further to 0.6 per cent in Q4.

ANRPC noted the supply of NR in the last quarter of 2010 was significantly down, and the forecast for the equivalent period in 2011 was only marginally above the reduced figure. The crisis in the euro zone has seriously affected output in most producing countries. ANRPC also estimates a three per cent fall in exports during October-December.

NR production increased five per cent during April-October. Total production increased to 480,700 tonnes as against 457,650 tonnes in the same period of last year. While consumption incre-ased to 551,425 tonnes as against 550,230 tonnes, the gap between production and consumption is likely to touch 150,000 tonnes.

Source: http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/natural-rubber-supply-to-fall-56-this-year/457872/







Tokyo futures drop, tracking oil, gold (Dec 9)
December 9, 2011





TOKYO, Dec 9 (Reuters) – Key Tokyo rubber futures fell 1.4 percent early on Friday, tracking losses in oil, gold and other commodities after comments from the head of the European Central Bank dashed hopes of more-dramatic action to fight the region’s debt crisis.

FUNDAMENTALS

* The key Tokyo Commodity Exchange rubber contract for May delivery <0#2JRU:> was changing hands at 286.9 yen per kg as of 0030 GMT, down 4.1 yen.

* On Thursday, the most active Shanghai rubber contract for May delivery fell 0.4 percent to close at 26,615 yuan per tonne. Volume stood at 808,000 lots.

* Crude oil futures fell for a second straight day on Thursday as disappointing comments from the head of the European Central Bank increased doubts among investors that the region’s debt crisis will be contained.

* The yen was steady against the dollar at 77.68.

* For the top stories in rubber market and other news, click, or

MARKET NEWS

* India’s carmakers may just break even in the fiscal year that ends in March, an industry body warned on Thursday and said it would cut its sales outlook for the year, as firms struggle with sluggish demand on rising input costs and high interest rates.

* Japan’s Nikkei average dropped on Friday after global shares slumped as steps from the European Central Bank disappointed some investors, and it flirted with key support at its 25-day moving average.





Most rubber defaulters new buyers from China – RTAS
December 7, 2011





SINGAPORE, Dec 7 (Reuters) – Inexperienced Chinese buyers have refused to take delivery of a bulk of the rubber shipped this year by major producers, but defaults are not as severe as in 2008, an official at the Rubber Trade Association of Singapore (RTAS) said on Wednesday.

The ASEAN Rubber Business Council, of which the RTAS is a member, has blacklisted buyers who defaulted on shipments and urged members to ignore requests for discounts following a plunge in prices.

“The defaulters this round are mainly new players to the rubber market who came in during the bull markets of 2009/2010 and who have not observed the sanctity of the contracts,” Benson Lim, a committee member of the RTAS, told Reuters by e-mail.

“The default situation this time round is not as bad as in 2008, and not 100 percent of the cases are related to Chinese buyers, who, however are the majority,” he added.

“Most of the older/established Chinese buyers are sticking to their contractual obligations despite the big price plunge.”

Buyers in China shocked the market late in 2008 when they refused to pay for their cargoes after prices tumbled by more than half due to the global financial crisis that hit automakers in Europe, North America and Japan hard.

Dealers’ estimates of these defaults varied from as little as 10,000 tonnes to as much as 200,000 tonnes, forcing officials from main producers Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia to visit China to sort out the issue.

This year, cash rubber prices have halved since hitting a lifetime high at $6.40 a kg in February, on fears the debt crisis in Europe could hurt demand, and also because top consumer China told sellers they wanted to renegotiate prices.

The ARBC decided in a meeting in Hanoi at the weekend that it would act against defaulters, and asked members to stop dealing with them. It also said it had blacklisted defaulters and would eventually disclose their names to the public.

“The ARBC is still finalising the list as some members are still in the process of reporting some new cases,” said Lim.

The ARBC groups Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Vietnam and Cambodia. (Reporting by Lewa Pardomuan; editing by Miral Fahmy)







Tripura to face tough fight in rubber production
December 8, 2011





AGARTALA, Dec 8 – Tripura will face stiff competition in retaining second largest naturalrubber producing State tag if the production is not enhanced in the years to come, said Chief Minister Manik Sarkar.

Kerala, which has been contributing 82 per cent raw natural rubber in the country, has already been enjoying first position since a long time while Tripura’s position is secondwith only 8.2 per cent contribution.

Tripura will face tough challenge as many States have started showing interest in rubberplantation after suffering losses in the past, Sarakr said while speaking at a programmeorganized by the Rubber Board at Prajna Bhavan here.

Calling upon the experts of the Rubber Board to look into the problem that led to low productivity of natural rubber in the State, he said that the time has come to explore the full potential in the field of rubber cultivation.

Asserting that the rubber cultivation has been changing the face of rural economcy of the State, Sarkar said that there should be maximum efforts on the part of growers and experts on how to address the low production of natural rubber.

In her speech, Ms Sheela Thomas, the Chairman of the Rubber Board ruled out any adverse environmental affect due to rubber cultivation.

In Kerala, around 5 lakh hectares of land have been brought under natural rubber cultivation without any harm to environment, she claimed.

“There is a general perception that rubber cultivation would harm the environment but the natural rubber in no way harms the environment,” Ms Thomas said.

The Chairman further said that Tripura’s per hectare rubber production could be 40,000 kg which is almost double to the exsting productivily.

“For this, the farmers need to keep close relation with the experts of the Rubber Board. In turn, the Rubber Board needs to ensure supply of good planting materials,” she added.

The programme was organised to award best rubber producers’ society, best male rubber grower, best female rubber grower and best rubber tapper.

Industries Minister Jitendra Chowdhury, Chairman of Tripura Industrial Development Corporation Ltd (TIDC) Pabitra Kar, J Thomas, Rubber Production Commissioner, among others, were present in the programme.