NMCE Rubber may tumble on fresh selling

NMCE Rubber may tumble on fresh selling
MONDAY, MARCH 7, 2011
NMCE rubber futures traded down on active profit selling on previous gains on Saturday. On opening itself prices started trading down on profit booking.
However, prices witnessed small recovery but failed to sustain the gains and fell drastically. Domestic spot market also witnessed subdued market activity taking cues from international market trend.
Thus, on overall bearish sentiments prevailing bearish trend across the globe impacted Indian futures market and prices at NMCE ended the day on negative note.
The rubbers futures are projected to continue the down trend on fresh selling on Monday. Taking cues from down spot market activity prices at futures might remain lower.
TOCOM rubber August futures are also trading down today at ¥456.10 per Kg. Thus, on cues from negative international market prices are likely to take sharp corrections on active selling during the day.
Factors to Watch For
The stock of natural rubber in the country till January 30, 2011, is estimated at 3,27,115 tons, according to chairman of Rubber Board of India
Natural-rubber inventories monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange is reported around at 58,058 tons, which is down by 62 % from last year’s highest inventory levels of 151,832 tons
According to the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries, Natural-rubber consumption in China and India may rise 9 percent to 3.6 million tons this year and 5.2 percent to 991,000 tons respectively
According to Passenger Car Association, passenger-car sales increased 16.2 percent Y/Y to 1.53 million last month
DERIVATIVE ANALYSIS
Indian Futures (NMCE)
The NMCE February contract, prices and volumes are falling while open interest is rising. It is a good indication that a sharp rally against downtrend will develop creating a sell point for downtrend.
Japan Futures (TOCOM)
The TOCOM active August contract, prices and volumes are falling while open interest is rising. It is a good indication that a sharp rally against downtrend will develop creating a sell point for downtrend.
Shanghai Futures (SHFE)
The SHFE active July contract, prices and volumes are falling while open interest is rising. It is a good indication that a sharp rally against downtrend will develop creating a sell point for downtrend.



Tokyo Futures Ease; Oil Prices, Shanghai Eyed
MONDAY, MARCH 7, 2011
Key Tokyo rubber futures eased on Monday (Mar 7) on worries that prices have risen too fast too far, with rising oil prices on Middle East tensions a key focus for the market.
FUNDAMENTALS
The key Tokyo Commodity Exchange rubber contract for August delivery fell 4.8 yen or 1 percent to 463.6 yen per kg as of 0004 GMT.
The most active Shanghai rubber contract for May delivery fell 430 yuan on Friday (Mar 4) to close at 38,030 yuan ($5,787) per tonne.
Traders have said rubber would find a near-term bottom due to concerns over supply and firm oil prices, but add that the prices are not expected to reach a fresh record as long as Shanghai rubber futures lack clear upside momentum.
U.S. crude futures jumped $1 to $105.42 a barrel early on Monday (Mar 7), the highest since September 2008. Worsening fighting in Libya and intensifying protests in the Middle East have raised fears over extended supply disruptions in Libya while growing unrest in Bahrain and Yemen ratcheted up anxiety over Saudi Arabia.
The dollar struggled against a basket of major currencies early in Asia on Monday (Mar 7) after failing to get a boost from data showing a rebound in U.S. jobs, while the euro stayed supported on expectations of an interest rate hike next month. The yen was firmer against the dollar, weighing on sentiment as a higher yen deflates the value of yen-priced TOCOM futures.
(Reuters, March 7, 2011)



Vietnam exports 45,000 tons of rubber in February
MONDAY, MARCH 7, 2011

HANOI (Commodity Online) : Vietnam’s revenue earnings from rubber exports hit the $200 million mark in February, according to country’s Ministry of Industry and Trade.
In February, Vietnam exported 45,000 tonnes of rubber, earning $200 million, said the ministry in a statement.
During the first two months this year, the country exported 121,000 tonnes of rubber, earning $532 million, rising 157 percent in quantity and 275 percent in value against the same period last year.
Some Vietnam's main rubber buyers are India, UK, Hong Kong and Malaysia with high export turnover for many years.
Especially, the country's rubber export to Malaysia market fetched $19.67 million in the first month this year, over 20 fold increase against the same period last year.
Experts said that to gain the export growth of $2.5-2.7 billion this year as expected, the rubber sector needs to diversify the products, reduce the export of raw materials, change the structure and improve the trade mark of Vietnamese rubber in the international market through annual fairs and exhibitions in nations.
Rubber is always one of Vietnam's key export items and has been keeping the strong growth momentum for recent years.