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India Monsoon Below Average as Cyclones Slow Progress

By Thomas Kutty Abraham

June 10 (Bloomberg) -- India’s monsoon, the main source of irrigation for the nation’s 235 million farmers, is 6 percent below average so far this season after two tropical cyclones slowed the progress of the rain-carrying winds.

The nation received 31.1 millimeters of rain from June 1 to June 9, the India Meteorological Department said on its website. An average of 33.1 millimeters is considered normal.

Adequate showers may help Prime Minister Manmohan Singh tame food inflation, which climbed near to an 11-year high this year, and pare imports of food staples. The country overtook China as the biggest palm oil buyer and became the largest sugar importer after last year’s drought led to shortages.

“Prices of agricultural products including edible oils and oilseeds will remain under pressure,” Amar Singh, an analyst at Angel Commodities Pvt., said by phone. “Normal rainfall always leads to bountiful harvests and that’s bad for prices.”

The South Asian nation has been a net buyer of sugar since the 2008-2009 season after cane farmers switched to wheat and oilseeds. Cane has been planted in 4.29 million hectares, 5 percent more than a year ago, the farm ministry said last week.

Tropical cyclone Laila, which lashed the South Indian coast on May 20, stalled the monsoon’s progress after it arrived over the east coast three days ahead of schedule on May 17. Cyclone Phet, off the coast of Oman, caused widespread rainfall in parts of Gujarat, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh early this week and slowed the monsoon’s advance to more parts in the south and west.

Northwest India

Northwest India, the nation’s main sugar cane, cotton and rice growing region, had 107 percent more rain than normal in the period, while central India received 53 percent less, including the biggest soybean-producing region, bureau data showed.

Rainfall was 37 percent lower in the south peninsula, the main coffee and rubber region, while it was 9 percent above average in the northeastern states, the biggest tea-growing region, the bureau said.

Monsoon showers may advance to Mumbai, the nation’s biggest commercial city, “anytime now” and as the weather system enters an active phase, D. Sivananda Pai, a director at the weather bureau’s Pune office, said by phone. The monsoon may enter a “lull phase” after a week, he said.

Rains this year may reach 98 percent of the 50-year average, the India Meteorological Department said on April 23. The bureau, which failed to predict last year’s drought, considers normal rainfall to be between 96 and 104 percent of the long-range average.