Global Output news

Global Rubber Supply May Climb 30 Percent by 2015 (Update2)
By Claire Leow and Supunnabul Suwannakij
Oct. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Global rubber supply may jump 30 percent by 2015 compared with last year after more than one million hectares were planted between 2005 and 2008, the International Rubber Study Group said.
Supply may increase by 50 percent by 2020 because of the “dramatic increase in total new planting,” it said in a report today. “In 2008 total new planting is estimated to have reached around six times the level of 2000.”
The report covers 11 Asian countries that accounted for 92 percent of world natural rubber production in 2008.
Rubber, used in tires and gloves, reached a one-year high last week as rising crude oil increased the cost of making rival synthetic product from petroleum, and as Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia, the top producers, cut exports to combat a collapse in prices last year. Rubber had rallied to a 28-year peak in June 2008, spurring farmers to increase planting.
Plantings increased in Vietnam and Thailand, and those trees are maturing, the group’s secretary general Hidde Smit said in an interview this month.
Rubber trees take about six years from planting to the first tapping and produce for about two decades after that.
Output Forecast
Asian production may climb 29 percent to 10.63 million tons by 2015, and global output may be 11.53 million tons, the report said. Production may total 9.3 million tons next year, compared with a revised 8.94 million tons in 2008. The report didn’t give a forecast for this year.
The eleven countries are: Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, India, Vietnam, China, Sri Lanka, Cambodia, the Philippines, Myanmar and Laos.
The table summarizes some key forecasts from selected countries. IRSG Production Forecast by Selected Origins (’000 Tons)
Country 2008 2010 2015 2020
Thailand 2,914 3,055 3,618 3,804
Indonesia 2,089 2,097 2,306 2,513
Malaysia 922 896 866 902
India 805 822 929 1,005
China 575 654 1,001 1,285
Vietnam 621 680 1,027 1,442
Laos 3 9 269 555
Myanmar 82 94 214 328
Region
Asia 8,250 8,556 10,633 12,487
Africa 446 477 576 720
LatinAmerica 241 265 325 385
TOTAL 8,937 9,298 11,534 13,592
(Source: International Rubber Study Group)